Energy shocks may force developing countries to raise interest rates, Japan's domestic inflation could lead the central bank to hike rates, and declining dollar confidence supports gold—0406 Macro Summary

If the US-Iran war becomes prolonged, inflation pressure will rise significantly, forcing policymakers to choose between supporting growth and fighting inflation. Under a severe energy shock, companies will increase the frequency of price adjustments and pass more of their costs on to consumers. Against the backdrop of an energy shock and a decline in global risk appetite, it will push central banks in developing countries to raise interest rates sharply in order to curb capital outflows.

The Bank of Japan’s rate hikes are part of the monetary policy normalization process. Current Japan has clear underlying inflation pressure, and the “wage–inflation expectations cycle” is the core driving force. In the spring wage negotiations of 2026, wage demands call for pay raises of about 6%, which is at a historical high. Rising import costs and yen depreciation may further lift prices and inflation expectations, strengthening demands for higher wages.

A weakening US dollar credit profile and the rotation between stagflation and inflation are still favorable for gold. For base metals, support on the supply side is relatively strong, while demand at the end market is weak. For ferrous metals, inventory pressure suppresses prices; the market will focus on whether the peak in iron ore inventories can be absorbed during the peak season, and whether there are additional policy measures to offset a downturn in real estate.