"Federal Reserve mouthpiece": Low employment growth may become the new normal, but it is especially fragile in the context of war

MeNews · 2026-04-06T14:39:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4 (UTC+8), "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos wrote that 178k new jobs were added in March, reversing the sharp decline seen in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic, as wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year increase in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer potential trend: an average of only 22.5k new jobs per month. Two years ago, adding 22.5k jobs per month would have been cause for concern; today, such a level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, "It's not easy to help the public understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." As the new supply shocks arrive again, the situation

MeNews

2026-04-06 14:39:48

ME News update. On April 4 (UTC+8), “Fed megaphone” Nick Timiraos wrote that March added 178k jobs, reversing the sharp drop seen in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. But some details are not so optimistic: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year pace in five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two more volatile months makes the underlying trend clearer: monthly average net job gains are only 22.5k positions. Two years ago, monthly net job gains of 22.5k would have been enough to raise concern; now, that level may still be viewed as acceptable.

Federal Reserve officials are still trying to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, “Helping the public understand that an economy with zero job growth is still consistent with full employment is not easy.” This situation is especially fragile as another supply shock comes back into play. If the war in Iran continues, higher fuel costs or shortages of goods could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market without a buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation may weaken the certainty of rate cuts, further limiting the Fed’s policy room. (Source: ChainCatcher)

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