The market is trying to price an nonexistent endgame; volatility is coming but not today — three key points to watch for today’s crude oil:

1. Market Review: Last Friday, due to Good Friday, the US, multiple European countries, Australia, and Hong Kong stock exchanges were closed for the day. The CME Group’s precious metals, US crude oil, forex, and stock index futures contracts, as well as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude futures, were all suspended for the entire day.
2. Key Indicators: Recently, Trump has chosen to extend the critical negotiation window in talks with Iran rather than immediately push for sanctions or military strikes, signaling a willingness to reach an agreement. Oil volatility remains high and fluctuating. CFTC data shows a clear decline in net long positions in US oil, with long advantage diminishing. The core of this change is the re-accumulation of short positions after a period of covering, indicating that market hedging demand is rising again.
3. Opinion Sharing: JPMorgan states that if the disruption of energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continues until mid-May, international crude oil prices could break through $150. Sparta Commodities senior oil market analyst June Goh believes that even if the Strait of Hormuz is unconditionally open to all ships today, it will take at least three to six months for the global oil production and refining supply chain to return to normal. Energy consulting firm FGE NexantECA points out that if the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly closed for another six weeks, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel or higher. Analyst Stephen Innes says volatility is coming but not today. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战