ShouChuang Futures: Export demand expectations weaken, palm oil experiences a significant pullback

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-06T07:14:06+00:00

Today, domestic oilseed prices continued to decline, led by palm oil. Despite a rebound in US soybean oil, the deepening backwardation in Argentine and Southeast Asian oils has heightened export demand concerns. Falling crude oil prices also dampen market sentiment, with domestic palm oil inventories rising and facing hedging pressure. In the short term, the oilseed market shows a clear correction trend, but the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic. It is recommended to close near-month long positions and look for buying opportunities after the pullback.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-06 07:14:06

Abstract generation in progress

Today’s domestic soybean oil and fats market continues to pull back; palm oil leads the decline, with the May main contract down more than 2%. Although overnight U.S. soybean oil rebounded, the selloff from the day before deepened the inverted spreads between Argentine soybean oil and Southeast Asian palm oil, and the market worries that spot export demand may weaken. In addition, crude oil fell more than 2% during the day, further dampening sentiment in the fats market.

On the domestic fundamentals, due to increased imports and a renewed deterioration in value-for-money, domestic palm oil inventories continue to rise, and the hedging pressure on the board is growing. Overall, after the sharp drops in U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil from the day before, in the short term the fats and oilseeds market has generally shown a pullback trend. Both domestic and overseas palm oil spot fundamentals face constraints, so near-term price upside momentum remains limited. However, with the Middle East war continuing and the potential positive impact on biodiesel, the medium- to long-term outlook is still relatively optimistic. It is recommended to close out near-month long positions and wait for the opportunity to buy in the farther months after the pullback stabilizes. (Capital Futures)

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