4.6 Crude Oil Analysis

The roots of Middle East geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and risks to Red Sea shipping still exist. Long-term supply-side support for crude oil as a safe haven remains intact. The short-term sharp decline is a technical correction resulting from profit-taking at high levels, not a trend reversal. The switch to Australian and New Zealand winter time only disturbs short-term rhythm and does not change the fundamentally strong outlook of the oil market.

Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for crude oil to Asia in May, with the premium reaching a record high, trading at a $19.5 per barrel spread over Oman/Dubai prices, a $17 increase in a single month. Coupled with Iran nearly closing the Strait of Hormuz, energy transportation is restricted, and the Middle East geopolitical supply crisis continues to escalate. The supply side of the oil market is strongly supported, and bullish logic remains solid.

Crude oil is currently at 110.98, with strong support at the lower Bollinger Band at 110.67. An effective double bottom support was formed at the intraday low of 109.21. The KDJ indicator is turning upward from a low position, signaling a clear oversold rebound. The previous bullish trend remains intact, and after a sharp drop, buying interest is increasing.

Trading suggestion: 105-108 range, target 115-120.