Stop comforting yourself. The current situation with #鲍威尔鸽派发言重燃降息预期 and $BTC is not as optimistic as you think. Continuous large-scale outflows of ETF funds are the most direct negative signal.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin ETF net outflows have exceeded $300 million in the past week, with a single-day outflow of $263 million. Major institutions like BlackRock are leading the sell-off; Ethereum is even worse, not only recording the largest single-day outflow in history but also experiencing over $350 million outflow in the past week, with the capital fleeing at a faster rate than Bitcoin.

The core support for the market previously was the incremental ETF funds. Now, not only is capital not flowing in, but it’s also fleeing aggressively, effectively shutting down the bullish engine and turning into a drain, causing the market to remain under constant downward pressure.

In this environment of collective institutional deleveraging, market liquidity is deteriorating. Even small sell orders push prices down, leveraged positions are being liquidated frequently, and Ethereum’s decline is noticeably larger than Bitcoin’s, indicating that funds are accelerating their abandonment of these risk assets. This also drags down the entire crypto market, with altcoins suffering even more severe declines.

Currently, there are no positive catalysts to support the market, and the macro environment is unfriendly. The so-called bottom-fishing and rebound are mostly just trap setups. Continuing to be bullish on BTC and ETH likely only means facing ongoing downside risks. The short-term trend has already clearly weakened, and there’s no need to hold onto unrealistic fantasies! $ETH