Gold and silver plummet, crude oil surges! Global stock markets shake

On the evening of March 3, Beijing time, all three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower across the board. As of 22:34 Beijing time, the Dow fell 1.71%, the Nasdaq fell 1.95%, and the S&P 500 index fell 1.65%.

International precious metals prices fell across the board. Spot silver and spot platinum at one point dropped by more than 12%, spot palladium at one point fell by nearly 7%, and spot gold plunged by more than 4% during the day. As of 21:40 Beijing time, London spot gold was down 3.08%, to $5157.44 per ounce; London spot silver was down 7.51%, to $82.562 per ounce.

Unlike the broad decline in precious metals, Brent crude oil rose more than 9% at one point during the day. As of 21:40 Beijing time, it was at $83.30 per barrel, up 7.15%.

On March 3, due to the situation in the Middle East, global stock markets were under pressure across the board. After most Asia-Pacific stock markets closed lower, European markets also saw a sharp drop. As of 21:42 Beijing time, the European STOXX 50 index fell 3.58%, Italy’s MIB index fell 4.21%, Germany’s DAX index fell 3.49%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index fell 2.70%, and France’s CAC 40 index fell 2.83%.

Industry analysts said that the Middle East conflict is lifting energy prices and may exacerbate inflation pressure, thereby reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep high interest rates for a longer period. High interest rates typically weigh on precious metals, and a stronger U.S. dollar has the same effect. The U.S. dollar index has risen by more than 1% so far this week. Regarding rate expectations, traders currently only believe there is a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will carry out a second rate cut this year, with the expected timing pushed back to September—later than previously expected.

Regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks, Goldman Sachs’ trading team said earlier that before the market begins a new round of sustained upward gains, it may first need to go through a period of pullback. Its core logic is that current market sentiment is fragile, money flows are volatile, and the macro backdrop is not yet sufficient to fully absorb the shock brought by geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodities. Goldman Sachs believes the market is in a stage of “first choppy pullbacks, then trying to achieve an effective breakout (for example, the S&P 500 index at the 7000 level).” The team said that what matters for the next phase is not the conflict event itself, but rather the persistence of the oil-price shock, whether transport through the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted over the long term, and whether the inflation expectations and rate-cut path triggered by this will further deteriorate.

In the afternoon of March 3 Beijing time, the European statistics office released the euro area’s 2026 February CPI preliminary estimate data. Both the year-on-year and month-on-month increases exceeded market expectations. Specifically, the euro area’s February CPI preliminary estimate rose 1.9% year over year, higher than both market expectations and the prior value (1.7%); it rose 0.7% month over month, far above the expected 0.3%, after January CPI fell 0.6% month over month.

In terms of inflation components, rising services prices became the most important driver pushing up the euro area’s February CPI preliminary estimate data. Prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained broadly stable. These data indicate that inflation pressure in the euro area continues to exist in the services sector and in core goods categories.

In early February, the European Central Bank announced that it would continue to keep its three key policy rates unchanged: the deposit facility rate, the main refinancing rate, and the marginal lending facility rate were maintained at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. This marked the ECB’s fifth consecutive time since July 2025 keeping rates at the same level. At that time, the ECB said its policy objective was still to ensure that inflation in the euro area remains at 2% over the medium term.

In the view of industry participants, the January CPI data in the euro area falling below the ECB’s target value to some extent strengthened market expectations that it would restart rate cuts in 2026. However, this round of inflation data showed a rebound, cooling rate-cut expectations somewhat. In particular, the recent tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, which could pose upward risks to inflation going forward, further reducing the market’s assessment of the likelihood that the ECB will cut rates this year.

Looking at the performance of the euro, the data show that since mid-January 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate began a new round of upward trend. In 2025 as a whole, the EUR/USD exchange rate surged by nearly 1400 basis points to 1.1746. Since January 28, 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown a clear correction. As of 18:40 on March 3 Beijing time, the EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen below the 1.16 level; it has declined by more than 400 basis points over more than a month.