Decoding US Dollar Liquidity: Macro Chengtan Takes You Through the Underlying Logic of Global Asset Pricing

Macro research has always been an area investors “love and hate.”

Those who agree with it believe that only by understanding macro trends can you grasp the main line of the era. In capital markets, the truly big opportunities often come from correctly judging the direction of the wave of the times. Only by standing on the side of the trend can returns potentially be amplified—just as long as you catch the wind, even a “pig” can take off.

Those who doubt it, however, think macro is too big and too abstract. Changes in monetary/fiscal policies across the ocean seem far removed from their own account returns. Rather than spending a large amount of time researching these “not grounded in reality” issues, it’s better to focus on screening individual stocks and specific assets.

Over the past decade or more, these two viewpoints have been in constant debate.

But after 2020, the market environment began to change noticeably.

Macro factors were no longer just “background variables,” but increasingly began to directly affect asset pricing and the market’s pace. The weight of macro trading has continued to rise. For many rallies, the starting point no longer comes from industry logic or corporate fundamentals, but from changes in policy and liquidity.

The deeper underlying reason is that the policy approach of major global economies is shifting—Western governments are gradually moving away from the “small government” model that emphasizes free markets, toward a “big government” model with more proactive intervention. In the face of economic slowdown and market volatility, policymakers’ tolerance has clearly declined. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are being used more frequently to support growth and backstop the market.

The direct impact is this: the relationship between macro variables and market performance has become more complex.

Take the second half of 2025 as an example. If you only look at the micro level, the fundamentals at the time did not support a full-fledged “bull market”: global economic growth continued to slow; improvements in corporate earnings were not significant; and geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainty still remained.

But the market followed a different rhythm—from U.S. equities to emerging market equities, from commodities to parts of the higher-risk asset space—nearly at the same time, clear gains appeared. The differentiation between different asset classes was quickly compressed, overall risk appetite rose, and it showed a state of “synchronized expansion.”

Many investors’ intuitive feeling at the time was: it seems like all assets are going up, but it’s hard to say clearly why.

Using a traditional fundamental framework, it’s difficult to explain this phenomenon. Because industry logic, corporate earnings, and regional differences did not improve in sync.

But viewed from macro and liquidity, all of this becomes easier to understand: at the time, constrained by growth pressure and financial stability targets, the policy orientation of major economies began to loosen at the margin. The U.S. dollar liquidity environment improved intermittently, driving down global funding costs. Meanwhile, the balance sheets of certain key financial intermediaries expanded, further amplifying the efficiency of capital transmission between different markets.

The result is: capital is not “selectively” entering one category of assets; rather, it is repricing risk assets at a faster pace and across a wider scope.

In such an environment: it’s hard to explain the source of returns through single-industry or single-stock logic. What truly plays the leading role is the higher-level variables—changes in liquidity across the entire financial system.

This is also the common confusion many investors had in that stage: even though they didn’t catch a particular “certain” industry, as long as they were in the market, they could still earn returns. But once you ignore changes in the macro environment, even if your individual stock selection doesn’t have obvious issues, your portfolio performance may lag significantly.

Behind this case is a reality that is becoming increasingly important: in some phases, the market isn’t driven by “bottom-up” fundamentals; instead, it is uniformly repriced by “top-down” macro liquidity. And understanding this often determines whether you are going with the flow—or fighting against the tide.

But we must admit: if our understanding of the macro only stays at the surface level of indicators—GDP, inflation, nonfarm payrolls, and so on—we may easily fall into a predicament. The more data we see, the harder the market becomes to understand. Because what often truly affects the market’s pace is not the surface data itself, but deeper operating mechanisms:

How is U.S. dollar liquidity generated?

How does capital transmit through the financial system?

How is liquidity redistributed across different markets?

—This mechanism determines where capital flows, and it also profoundly influences the logic behind asset pricing. Understanding it is what allows you to truly see how macro impacts investing.

To answer these questions, Wall Street Insights has invited the founder of Tantou Macro, Cheng Tan, to deliver a new masterclass in Shanghai on April 25, 2026 (Saturday): 《From U.S. Dollar Liquidity to Decode the Underlying Logic of Global Asset Pricing》.

Dr. Cheng Tan graduated from the Finance Department of Peking University Guanghua School of Management. He worked for ten years at the Central Foreign Exchange Business Center of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and for a long time has been involved in global asset allocation and tactical operations of foreign exchange reserves. He oversees a massive pool of foreign exchange assets, and is one of the important participants in the global liquidity system.

Contrary to many people’s imagination, the SAFE’s investments are not simply passive allocation, but high-intensity active management. The linkages across multiple asset classes—stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange—mean that once judgment deviates, performance pressure will be very direct.

In such an environment, macro research is never work that merely “writes reports,” but rather continuously answers a series of real-world questions:

• Are trends truly established?
• Is a turning point nearing?
• Is noise interfering with judgment?

Later, Cheng Tan summarized the role of macro research in twelve words:

Grasp the trend, judge turning points, and eliminate noise— this methodology has been tested over the long term in real market conditions.

Of course, we must also be honest: this course isn’t suitable for all investors.

For most investors, understanding an industry and researching a company’s fundamentals is often a more direct and more efficient path.

But if you want to, over a longer investment cycle, capture the core variables behind market changes; if you want to understand the transmission logic behind global asset prices rather than staying at surface phenomena—then this relatively hard-core course, with a deeper cadence, may be worth your serious time investment.

As we co-developed and refined the course with Professor Cheng Tan, we also made a decision that wasn’t easy: we deliberately gave up “covering everything” general explanations, and instead focused on deeper—and more tedious—financial operating mechanisms.

Because we are increasingly clear: macro policy, the structure of the financial system, and households’ balance sheets are essentially a system that moves in linkage with one another. If you ignore the structure of financial intermediaries and the paths of liquidity transmission, and rely only on aggregate indicators to judge trends, it’s easy to misread the market.

We hope that through this course, you can build a practical liquidity analysis framework.

Not a pile of scattered knowledge points, but a complete system—from concepts to tools, and from mechanisms to case studies.

What you ultimately gain isn’t just knowledge itself, but two more important capabilities: the ability to grasp the macro main line from the top down and the ability to verify liquidity details from the bottom up.

In a market environment where uncertainty has become the norm, we hope this framework can become a set of foundational tools for you to understand asset pricing.

If you hope to: no longer be led around by emotions, no longer stay at the level of viewpoints, but truly understand the underlying logic of how the market operates—then this course may provide a systematic starting point for you.

This course includes one hour of interactive Q&A. Students can discuss with Professor Cheng Tan the questions they care about most and receive face-to-face answers and clarification. Friends interested in this course can click the image above to register. If you’d like to learn more about the course details, you’re also welcome to scan the image below and consult the course assistant.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer Terms

        The market involves risk, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Invest at your own risk based on this.