Gold, copper, and oil experience wide fluctuations! Zijin Mining: The reversal trend for lithium mines will start in 2026! Zijin's stock surges nearly 4%, investing 18 billion yuan to acquire Chifeng Gold! The China A-share Nonferrous Metals ETF (Huitianfu) (159652) rebounded and rose over 2% at one point.

On March 24, the A-share market fluctuated upwards, with the non-ferrous sector experiencing volatility. As of 13:38, the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652), which has a “higher copper content,” rose over 2% at one point, and the afternoon gains slightly narrowed to 1.2%, likely ending a nine-day decline.

Most of the constituent stocks of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) surged, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 3%, Shandong Gold up over 1%, and China Aluminum and Ganfeng Lithium slightly increasing, while Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt saw corrections.

As of 13:44, the constituent stocks are for display purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Recently, TACO trading has resurfaced in the market. High-level officials in the United States announced that they had “productive talks” with Iranian leaders, thus deciding to postpone the attack by five days. Following this news, the market quickly reversed, with crude oil dropping over 13% last night, gold and silver spiking, and London’s base metals rising across the board, with LME copper up 2.44%.

In response from the Iranian side, Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker Ghalibaf stated on social media on the 23rd that negotiations with the U.S. had not taken place, calling it “false news” intended to manipulate the financial and oil markets.

On March 14, gold saw a significant pullback, with London copper dropping over 1.7%. The Federal Reserve signaled uncertainty in monetary policy, and the geopolitical game between the U.S. and Iran fluctuated, coupled with some international investment banks reducing their gold allocation ratios, all contributing to the weakening of metals.

【Non-Ferrous Leader — Zijin Mining’s Acquisition & Buyback Heavy Strike, Predicting Lithium Price Reversal Trend Starting in 2026!】

Regarding constituent stock news, on March 23, Zijin Mining announced it would acquire control of the domestic gold leader, Chifeng Gold, while its wholly-owned subsidiary Zijin Gold (Group) Co., Ltd. signed a “Share Transfer Agreement” and a “Strategic Investment Agreement” with Chifeng Gold, with a total transaction value of approximately 18.258 billion RMB. Zijin Mining stated that this acquisition would benefit the integration of quality resources and enhance the investment value of both Zijin Mining and Chifeng Gold.

Additionally, concerning lithium mines in the non-ferrous sector, Zijin Mining executives stated at the 2025 annual performance briefing that looking ahead to 2026, the lithium price reversal trend is starting, and the lithium industry is transitioning from a paper surplus to a tight balance. In the long term, the dual-driving pattern of new energy vehicles and energy storage is solidifying, the commercialization of solid-state batteries is entering a critical acceleration phase, and new scenarios like AI data centers are becoming super demand engines. It is expected that by 2030, demand will exceed 3 million tons, making the safety of lithium resource supply a core issue for major economies and industrial chain enterprises. Furthermore, Zijin Mining announced after the market close on March 23 that at the second meeting of the ninth board of directors held on March 20, 2026, it approved the proposal for the buyback of the company’s A-share stock through centralized bidding, agreeing to use its own funds to repurchase A-shares for a total amount not less than 1.5 billion RMB (inclusive) and not exceeding 2.5 billion RMB (inclusive), with a maximum buyback price of 41.5 RMB/share (inclusive). The announcement indicated that the company has already repurchased over 640 million RMB!

(Note: Constituent stock news is for display purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.)

【Precious Metals: Gold Fluctuates, What’s the Long-term Pricing Logic?】

Galaxy Securities stated that the consecutive declines are not due to a failure of safe-haven assets, but rather a shift in the pricing logic from risk-driven to interest rate-driven. Recently, gold prices have fallen for eight consecutive trading days, with a weekly drop of over 10%, which seems unusual against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts. However, this is essentially not a disappearance of safe-haven demand but a change in the variables that the market prioritizes in pricing. In the past, escalating conflicts often corresponded to inflows into gold, but at this stage, the market’s first reaction is to inflation and interest rate paths, leading to a temporary divergence between gold and geopolitical risks.

From a broader perspective, gold pricing is returning from a “credit logic” phase to an “interest rate logic.” In the past, increases in gold were largely driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical risks, while at the current stage, the market has returned to a pricing chain of “inflation - interest rates - dollar.” Within this framework, as long as real interest rates rise and the dollar strengthens, gold will struggle to maintain strength, even as risks continue to rise. Short-term pressure does not alter the long-term logic; gold remains dependent on the rebalancing of interest rates and credit. In the current environment of high oil prices and high interest rates, increased short-term volatility in gold is inevitable. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, central bank gold purchases, diversification of reserves, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide support. Overall, this round of adjustment is more about a change in rhythm rather than a reversal of trend. (Source: Galaxy Securities, March 22, 2026, “International Gold Prices Continually Decline, Why Do Safe-Haven Assets ‘Fail’?”)

【Industrial Metals: Copper’s Strategic Allocation Value Remains Unchanged, Aluminum Supply Side Impacted】

Regarding copper, Huaxi Securities pointed out that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe further elevate market risk aversion. The recent rise in oil prices has heightened inflation expectations, significantly cooling the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations for 2026, strengthening the dollar index, and retreating global risk appetite, which together suppresses copper prices from high levels. In the medium to long term, copper, as a key metal for energy transition, possesses strategic allocation value under the policy guidance of the “14th Five-Year Plan.” On the supply side, entering 2026, major global mines continue to experience strikes and production halts this year, with supply remaining tight. On a macro level, there is still a chance of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year; in the long term, the macro environment supports copper prices, and it is expected that the dollar will continue to depreciate, with optimism for copper prices. Additionally, strong supply-demand fundamentals support copper prices, and China’s macro policies may continue to strengthen, with stimulus measures in power infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and home appliance consumption potentially expanding further. (Source: Huaxi Securities, March 24, 2026, “Base Metals Weekly: Escalation of Middle East Conflict, High Inflation Expectations Combined with Safe-Haven Demand Suppressing Metal Prices”)

Regarding aluminum, CICC believes that the U.S.-Iran situation is disturbing aluminum supply, and aluminum prices may accelerate upward. Electrolytic aluminum is facing production shocks from three aspects: first, the Middle East region, which accounts for 9% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, may face power supply interruptions and war damage; second, the Middle East region has a 68% reliance on alumina imports, and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to risks of raw material shortages for electrolytic aluminum; third, disruptions in LNG transportation are pushing European natural gas prices to soar, further triggering risks of shutdowns in European electrolytic aluminum production. CICC is bullish on the opportunities for revaluation brought about by rising aluminum prices and ton aluminum profits, with the supply-demand gap for aluminum widening and the U.S.-Iran conflict increasing vulnerability, compounded by the resonance of active global fiscal and monetary policies, leading to expectations for new highs in aluminum prices; considering the low-cost environment, ton aluminum profits are expected to widen further. (Source: CICC, March 23, 2026, “Non-Ferrous Metals: Continuing to Favor Electrolytic Aluminum and Gold”)

【How to Fully Layout the Non-Ferrous Sector?】

Currently, the overall allocation value of non-ferrous metals is prominent, with long-term logic of “monetary easing on the supply side, rigidity on the demand side, and new driving forces” remaining unchanged, strengthening both the metal and commodity attributes! If you are optimistic about future investment opportunities in precious metals and bulk industrial metals, consider the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) with a “higher copper content,” and off-market links (Class A: 019164; Class C: 019165). The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) has the following advantages:

1. Comprehensive layout across major metal sectors: The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) covers the index comprehensively, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and other sub-sectors, which are expected to benefit from a super cycle of non-ferrous metals.

Data as of February 27, 2026, based on CITIC three-level industry distribution.

2. Leading “gold and copper content”: The index of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) has a copper content of 33% and a gold content of 13%, with a combined gold and copper content of 45%, leading its peers!

Data as of February 27, 2026, based on CITIC three-level industry distribution.

3. Leading concentration of leading stocks: The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) focuses on core varieties with strategic value and supply-demand gaps, such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a high concentration of leading stocks, where the top five constituent stocks have a concentration of 36%, leading its peers.

Data as of February 27, 2026.

4. Superior performance in returns: From 2022 to the present, the index of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) has a leading Sharpe ratio among its peers and a lower maximum drawdown, providing a better investment experience.

Data as of February 27, 2025.

5. Price increases driven by profits, not inflated valuations: Although the non-ferrous sector has led in price increases since last year, valuations remain relatively reasonable! The index PE (price-to-earnings ratio) of the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is 32.30 times, down 45% from five years ago, reflecting high valuation cost-effectiveness and safety margins. It is worth noting that during the same period, the index has accumulated a 126% increase, indicating that the increase in the index comes from profits rather than valuation enhancement, currently in an EPS-driven phase!

Data statistical period: February 28, 2021 - February 27, 2026.

Risk Warning: Funds are subject to risks, and investments require caution. Investors should read legal documents such as the “Fund Contract,” “Prospectus,” and “Product Information Summary” to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, especially unique risks, and determine whether they align with their risk tolerance based on their investment objectives, experience, and asset status. The fund manager promises to manage and utilize the fund’s assets with honesty and diligence, but does not guarantee that the fund will achieve profits or that principal will not be lost. The above fund is classified as a higher risk level (R4) product, suitable for investors assessed as aggressive (C4) and above. Investors should pay attention to the risks of index-based investments and concentrated holdings in specific non-ferrous index constituent stocks, as well as the risks associated with large weights and high concentration of certain index constituents, risks of index-based investments, ETF operation risks, and specific risks of investing in certain varieties. The individual stocks mentioned are only for objective display as index constituents; the information presented in this article is for reference only, and investors must assume responsibility for any self-determined investment actions. Any views, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader.

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