Express delivery companies issue dense rate adjustment notices to hedge against rising fuel costs

Securities Times Reporter Nie Yinghao

The ongoing conflict between Israel, Iran, and the U.S. continues to impact the global transportation system. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil trade, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel. This has led to the sixth domestic fuel price adjustment of the year, returning to the “9 yuan era” as of 24:00 on March 23. Market expectations suggest that oil prices will continue to rise further.

Courier companies face increased transportation costs

The sharp rise in oil prices has driven up logistics and transportation costs. Coupled with ongoing efforts to curb internal competition within the courier industry, courier prices have been adjusted multiple times this year, making price hikes almost a necessity for all courier companies. On March 23, coinciding with the sixth domestic oil price adjustment this year, five major courier companies—ZTO, YTO, STO, Yunda, and Jitu—jointly issued a price adjustment notice. Guizhou became the first province to implement the new prices after the adjustment.

All five companies’ notices indicate that rising oil prices have increased transportation costs. To ensure healthy and stable development, and considering the companies’ rigid cost structures, starting from March 23, 2026, within Guizhou Province, delivery prices will be adjusted. Customers are advised to confirm prices with local branches before placing orders. All existing inventory will be compensated at the new rates.

The notice specifies that the postage per label in Guizhou will increase by 0.05 yuan, with the minimum courier fee raised to 1.2 yuan per parcel. All local courier brands will implement the new prices simultaneously, with no room for differentiation.

Multiple regions announce courier price hikes

Previously, in response to internal competition, Sichuan was the first to initiate courier price adjustments. On March 10, Jitu, ZTO, YTO, and STO announced that, starting March 11, in Sichuan, courier prices would be adjusted based on company costs, and discounts on delivery fees would be canceled across the region. The five franchised courier companies in Sichuan synchronized their price increases, removing some delivery discounts, with last-mile delivery fees rising by 0.1 yuan per parcel and delivery prices increasing by 0.1 to 0.3 yuan per parcel.

Subsequently, other regions such as Yiwu, Yunnan, and Jiangxi also announced courier price hikes. Yiwu-based courier companies announced increased delivery fees, and some cities added special surcharges due to rising delivery costs, such as an extra 1 yuan per parcel for shipments to Beijing and Shanghai starting March 13. On March 17, courier companies in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other areas issued notices to customers, announcing the removal of certain discounts and price adjustments based on costs. Jiangxi increased prices by 0.1 yuan per parcel for branches and customers below the minimum cost threshold.

Since Q4 2025, courier industry unit prices have been steadily rising. For example, as of the end of February 2026, Shentong’s per-parcel price increased from 1.97 yuan last year to 2.44 yuan, a 24% increase; YTO rose about 15% to 2.4 yuan; Yunda increased about 18% to 2.25 yuan.

Industry profitability divergence

For the courier industry, which heavily relies on road transportation, the recent surge in oil prices may temporarily increase operating costs and lead to profitability divergence within the industry.

Huatai Securities notes that, in the short term, a $10 increase in oil prices raises per-parcel costs by approximately 0.012 yuan. Franchise courier companies mainly incur costs from delivery fees, transportation, and transfer. “Tongda” logistics costs account for about 20% of total costs. If the fleet is fully self-operated, fuel costs make up roughly 30% of transportation costs. Overall, fuel costs account for about 6% of total courier costs.

Huatai estimates that if international oil prices rise from $60 to $80–100 per barrel, aviation kerosene and domestic diesel prices could increase by approximately 1,267 yuan and 2,534 yuan per ton, respectively. This would raise airline unit costs by about 7.3% and 14.7%, and impact long-distance road freight rates by approximately 3.7% and 7.5%. The effect on courier prices would be less than 1.5%. Due to weak demand and increased competition, road and courier companies have limited ability to pass on these costs.

For leading e-commerce courier companies like Tongda, the 2024 per-parcel transportation cost is about 0.4 yuan. Assuming fuel costs account for 30%, a $10 increase in oil prices would raise per-parcel costs by 0.012 yuan. If oil prices rise from $60 to $80 or $100 per barrel, domestic diesel prices could increase by 12% and 24%, respectively, raising courier costs by 0.014 and 0.028 yuan per parcel, representing 0.7% and 1.3% of the parcel price.

Huatai Securities believes that major logistics companies can pass some of the fuel cost increases through “fuel surcharge” fees. However, franchise and small-to-medium logistics firms face fierce price competition and oversupply, making it difficult to transfer fuel costs effectively, as merchants are sensitive to logistics prices.

Huatai Securities states, “If geopolitical tensions escalate and oil prices remain high, the ability to pass costs on to customers will determine profitability differences in the medium to long term. Leading firms with high freight rates and high service requirements will have stronger price transmission and better long-term profitability. Conversely, e-commerce courier clients with lower freight rates are more price-sensitive, making it harder for companies to establish effective price transmission mechanisms.”

Industry forecasts suggest that courier unit prices will continue to recover. Longjiang Securities predicts that, amid ongoing internal competition, courier prices will maintain the year-over-year improvement trend seen since Q4 2025. E-commerce courier profitability is expected to recover, with leading companies performing better structurally. Direct-operated courier services will continue to optimize product offerings, increasing high-value services and driving profit growth, with net profits in Q1 2026 expected to grow steadily.