March 24 Investment Risk Alert: Trump Says US-Iran Could Reach Deal Within 5 Days, International Oil Prices Drop Over 10%

Guide: Caixin on March 24th Investment Safety Tips, recent potential risk events in A-shares and overseas markets are as follows. Domestic economic information includes: 1) Supply and demand contradictions continue to release, pig prices under pressure; 2) Air freight prices surge, Middle Eastern cross-border sellers halt business; Company focus includes: 1) The original controlling shareholder of ST Jinggu’s former subsidiary is suspected of contract fraud and has been filed; 2) DJI, a drone leader, officially sues Ying Shi Innovation, involving six patent ownership disputes, with several former DJI core R&D personnel accused of involvement; Overseas market focus includes: 1) US crude oil and Brent crude oil fall over 10%; 2) Trump states US and Iran may reach an agreement within 5 days, but Iran’s senior leadership denies negotiations with the US.

Economic Information

1. Guoyuan Futures research report states that the market was in a state of oversupply and weak demand at the time, coupled with policy regulation efforts, so short-term trends remain weak. On the supply side, the number of breeding sows was relatively high earlier, and capacity reduction was slow, providing ongoing support for future supply. Supply-side pressure continues to emerge. The planned slaughter volume of large-scale farms in March increased significantly month-on-month, with slaughtering pace accelerating. Retail investors, due to low pig prices, rising feed costs, and narrowing price spreads of standard fat pigs, are less willing to hold pigs, increasing slaughter speed. Meanwhile, market expectations for the future are pessimistic, with cautious entry into second breeding, unable to offset oversupply pressure. Demand is in the traditional off-season, with sluggish catering and resident consumption after the Spring Festival, poor pig trade, and slaughterhouses lowering prices, further suppressing spot prices. Policy efforts have begun to take effect; in March, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading pig enterprises, explicitly lowering the breeding sow inventory to 36.5 million, indicating further deepening of capacity regulation. However, the short-term oversupply pattern remains difficult to change, and the fundamentals are viewed as bearish until the effects of capacity regulation are evident. Key focus should be on slaughtering pace and the disposal of breeding sows.

2. The ongoing escalation of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts has significantly impacted the air cargo market. With crude oil prices rising sharply, jet fuel costs have surged. Recently, many airlines announced suspensions of Middle Eastern routes and levied fuel surcharges, causing air freight prices to continue climbing. It is understood that jet fuel costs typically account for over 30% of total airline operating costs. Facing rising costs, many airlines worldwide have announced increases in fuel surcharges. On the other hand, due to the cancellation of many cargo flights on Middle Eastern routes, capacity is tight, and air freight prices are soaring. A sales manager from an import-export trading company told reporters that due to the significant increase in transportation costs, logistics on Middle Eastern routes are currently suspended, and both they and their Middle Eastern clients are waiting for the conflict to resolve.

3. On March 23rd, domestic gold prices fell below 1,000 yuan/gram, with several brands’ gold jewelry prices continuing to decline. Chow Sang Sang’s pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,367 yuan/gram, down 22 yuan from the 21st; Lao Miao Gold was 1,374 yuan/gram, down 23 yuan; Chow Tai Fook was 1,375 yuan/gram, down 22 yuan.

Company Warnings

1. ST Jinggu: The former controlling shareholder of the original subsidiary has been filed for suspected contract fraud.

2. Ying Shi Innovation: DJI, a drone leader, officially sues Ying Shi Innovation, involving six patent ownership disputes, with several former DJI core R&D personnel accused of involvement.

3. Huitong Technology: Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by no more than 4.92%.

4. Duopule: Shareholder Xiamen Rongyu plans to reduce holdings by no more than 4.9%.

5. *ST Yitong (rights protection): Shareholder Wang Zhenhong plans to reduce holdings by no more than 2.99%.

6. Zhengdan Shares: Controlling shareholder’s concerted action intends to reduce holdings by no more than 1.00%.

7. GCL System Integration: Perovskite tandem products are still in R&D stage, not yet mass-produced.

8. Junda Shares: The company’s space photovoltaic business remains in technology development and verification stage, with no revenue or profit yet.

9. Haitian Precision: Net profit in 2025 is expected to decrease by 17.97% year-on-year, proposing a 10-for-3 dividend.

10. Satellite Chemical: Net profit in 2025 is expected to decrease by 12.54% year-on-year, proposing a 10-for-5 dividend.

11. Wate Gas: Market rumors of price increases for some of the company’s gases, with limited price adjustment scope, likely to have limited impact on full-year 2026 performance.

12. *ST Likuang (rights protection): Received a decision to terminate listing.

13. Hexin Instruments: There are signs of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation.

Overseas Warnings

1. International oil prices plummeted, with NYMEX May light crude futures down $10.10, closing at $88.13 per barrel, a 10.28% drop; ICE Brent crude futures for May fell $12.25, closing at $99.94 per barrel, a 10.92% decline.

2. According to Axios on March 23, Israeli officials said multiple coordinating countries are trying to arrange a meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, later this week, involving Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, US Special Envoy Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, and US Vice President Vance.

Iranian media such as Tasnim News Agency reported on the 23rd that Iran denies Parliament Speaker Kalibaf is involved in US negotiations.

3. On March 23, US President Trump posted on social media platform “Real Social” that “the US and Iran have had very good and productive talks over the past two days.” Trump said he has instructed a pause on all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump also told US media that Iran “really wants to reach an agreement,” and the US and Iran “may reach an agreement within 5 days or even sooner.” He added that the US is “very interested in reaching an agreement with Iran.” Iran denies any negotiations with the US.

Several senior Iranian leaders stated on March 23 that Trump’s claim of negotiations is false. They said Iran has no negotiations with the US. Iran claims Trump withdrew the attack because Iran’s armed forces made a “decisive, powerful, and credible deterrent” response. Iran emphasizes that its stance on the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged and will not change.

4. Goldman Sachs states that due to soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has increased to 30%, up 5 percentage points from previous estimates. Factors include energy price shocks, Middle Eastern conflicts tightening US financial conditions, and the waning effect of last summer’s major tax law. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius has raised his baseline unemployment forecast to 4.6% by year-end. The bank still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December. It also forecasts US GDP growth below trend in the second half of the year, with annualized growth between 1.25% and 1.75%.

5. The Iran conflict has triggered stagflation fears, causing global bond values to evaporate over $2.5 trillion in March, the largest monthly decline in over three years. Rising oil prices accelerate inflation expectations, leading to bond price drops. Despite bond market losses being smaller than the approximately $11.5 trillion loss in global equities, it is surprising since bonds usually rise during geopolitical turmoil. US bond prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, with yields reaching multi-month highs amid speculation that the Fed may need to hike rates to combat inflation. In Asia, government bond yields in India, Japan, and South Korea have risen. Australia’s 10-year yield hit its highest since 2011, and New Zealand’s government bonds reached their highest since May 2024.

6. Sources say the UAE has restarted the Habshan natural gas plant, but most LNG capacity remains idle.