Reuters: U.S. Plans to Formulate One-Month Ceasefire

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Israel’s Channel 12, the United States may soon declare a one-month ceasefire in the Iran war, a mechanism pushed forward by U.S. Middle East envoy Wittekov and Kushner. As of Jintian’s publication, no other authoritative media outlets have reported on this matter. Investing.com analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that this news could indicate a short-term reduction in geopolitical risks. The energy market’s response aligns with the trend of some war risk premiums being priced out. The decline in oil prices reflects that any signs of regional tensions easing—even temporarily—remain highly sensitive. While such a long ceasefire may not resolve broader conflicts, it suggests that hostilities could decrease in the short term, reducing the risk of disruptions to regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes. For traders, the key point is that oil prices have been carrying significant risk premiums related to broader escalation concerns. Any reports hinting at a potential formal pause in conflict could trigger rapid market re-pricing, especially if positions are skewed toward supply risk concerns. This situation appears to be just that, but the sustainability of this trend may depend on subsequent official confirmation and whether the proposed ceasefire mechanism gains clear support from relevant parties. Currently, this news points to an ongoing process rather than a finalized agreement. Therefore, the market will continue to closely monitor developments, including official statements, remarks from U.S. officials, and any responses from the other side. (Jintian)