【US Stock Market Close】US Reportedly Seeks Thursday Negotiations with Iran; Crude Oil Holds Steady, Dow Jones Narrows Decline (Continuously Updated)

Multiple U.S. media outlets report that the U.S. is engaging with Iran regarding a ceasefire plan. Axios reports that the U.S. and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still awaiting a response from Tehran.

Iranian officials deny Trump’s claims of behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirm that the U.S. has sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices are cautious; Brent crude rises 0.2%, closing at $100.17, while WTI crude rises 4.8%, closing at $92.35.

Gold rebounded; spot gold up 1.6%, closing at $4,475.51. Spot silver remains largely unchanged, closing at $71.2194.

The U.S. dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.23, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks are slightly soft; the Dow once fell 438 points to a low of 45,769, but closed down 84 points at 46,124. The S&P 500 declined 0.4%, closing at 6,556, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, closing at 21,761.

Trump has delayed the final ultimatum by five days, but sporadic attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister states willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve ongoing conflicts.

Market sources indicate Iran has begun charging tolls to some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, collected on a case-by-case basis, with a maximum of $2 million per voyage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” in this waterway. Some ships have paid, but the specific payment mechanisms and currencies are unclear.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported Tuesday that, after close coordination with authorities, a Thai-flagged vessel successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Israeli media Ynet, citing local officials, the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date to end the Iran conflict, meaning over half a month remains for fighting and negotiations. Washington aims to conclude hostilities by the end of April.

Reports suggest that if the conflict ends around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around May 14, the day of Israeli Independence. Pakistan and other countries are actively mediating, attempting to arrange indirect U.S.-Iran communication, possibly starting in Pakistan this week, though neither side has officially confirmed.

Additionally, CCTV quotes Russian media reporting that Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on BBC Arabic that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf countries to pay large sums for their involvement in the Iran conflict.

The report states Trump is demanding huge “protection fees” from Arab allies—either $5 trillion (about HKD 39 trillion) to continue the conflict or $2.5 trillion (about HKD 19.5 trillion) to end it—claiming this as compensation for “achieved results.”

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Market Trends:

【22:50】Iran reportedly charges “toll fees” to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil rebounds 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil rebounds 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there a glimmer of hope for U.S.-Iran war? Trump reportedly demands sky-high protection fees: $2.5 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】U.S. sets April 9 as “End of War” date; Iran continues to deny.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258.

【14:00】Oil prices rebound; WTI at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken; NY gold down 0.9% at $4,400; spot gold at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices likely to fluctuate amid Middle East conflict; maintains year-end target of $6,250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers lucrative terms to private equity firms; 17.5% guaranteed return to compete in enterprise AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky of OnlyFans dies of cancer at age 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trend】Gold declines for nine consecutive days, with local prices falling below HKD 40,000 per tael.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; reduction may continue into April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trend】Gold drops over 20% from high, entering a bear market; Morgan Stanley: funds shifting from safe-haven assets to stocks, positive for U.S. equities.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Sanae Takashi orders assessment of oil-related supply chains amid crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consults on possible intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge impacts through holdings.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states dependence on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve official Daly: U.S. economy faces at least two scenarios; Fed needs flexibility to manage risks.

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual WWDC scheduled for June 8, expected to unveil new AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies negotiations with Trump; UK destroyer “Rong” arrives in Mediterranean (ongoing updates).

$1 below for March 23 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump’s remarks questioned; Dow halves gains to 631 points, oil continues to fall 10%

U.S. President Trump claims negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, boosting oil prices and stocks. The Dow once rose 1,134 points to 46,712; the S&P gained 2.2% to 6,651; Nasdaq up 2.5% to 22,189. But gains narrowed at close: Dow up 631 points at 46,208; S&P up 1.1% at 6,581; Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

See U.S. stock market close:

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Oil prices fell 14.1% during the day, closing down 10%, with WTI at $88.13 and Brent at $100.5. Gold prices fell 7% intraday, hitting $4,099.18, but closed down 1.9% at $4,407.18.

Macquarie’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We remain skeptical about early reports of a breakthrough today,” believing war is unlikely to extend beyond April as Iran’s threats may weaken, but large-scale military action probably won’t end this week.

Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran went smoothly over the past two days, and he has instructed the U.S. military to suspend all attacks on Iran’s power and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on ongoing talks and discussions.

Trump later said that multiple agreements had been reached, including discussions about Iran’s leadership, and claimed Iran had agreed to give up nuclear weapons. However, he also warned that if negotiations break down, bombing will continue.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later quoted sources saying the U.S. and Iran have not engaged in negotiations and that the attacks continue; the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict status. Mehr News Agency also cited Iran’s Foreign Ministry, stating Trump’s comments aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that there are initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s stance is that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as Iran did not initiate the war.

Trump further responded, saying negotiations took place on the evening of Sunday (22nd), emphasizing Iran’s eagerness to reach an agreement, and expressed confusion over why Iranian media refutes his statements.

T. Rowe Price noted that after Iran was attacked, gold initially surged as a safe haven, but the rally was short-lived as markets reinterpreted the event as a geopolitical risk. Investors did not see it as a sustained geopolitical shock but rather as driven by energy prices and inflation concerns. This shift pushed real yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and dampened gold’s appeal.

Gold had already gained significantly before the event, limiting further safe-haven inflows. The outlook suggests gold prices will continue to be influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, real yields and central bank policies will be key, along with energy prices and the dollar. The firm still views gold as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks and policy uncertainties support gold, even if short-term prices remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points, oil down 10%.

【21:30】Trump delays final ultimatum by 5 days, says negotiations with Iran ongoing; Dow up 744 points, oil down 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations; Dow futures gains narrow; oil down 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks, delays final ultimatum 5 days; Dow futures up 1207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%, oil plunges 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% at 23,934.

【14:13】Oil rebounds; WTI at $98.97, up 0.8%; Brent at $112.85, up 0.6%.

【14:13】【Gold Trend】Spot gold drops below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; local prices fall another HKD 1,000 per tael, retreating from highs by HKD 10,000.

【13:25】【Oil Outlook】Goldman warns of “largest supply shock in history”; raises Brent crude forecast to $85 in 2026.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA chief: Over 40 Middle East energy assets severely damaged; conflict impact akin to two oil crises in the 1970s plus 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【JPY Trend】JPY against HKD hits 4.9; Japanese officials reiterate “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures against exchange rate fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Japan and South Korea stocks suffer “Black Monday”; Korean stocks fall 5%, triggering sixth “Sidecar” mechanism this year; Nikkei drops over 2,600 points.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: Terafab project to be based in Austin; jointly operated by Tesla and SpaceX.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final day of ultimatum; Trump and Iran threaten to attack civilian infrastructure; oil volatile (ongoing updates).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict; watch Fed officials’ comments; U.S. March manufacturing PMI due Tuesday.

【07:30】Iran conflict intensifies; Trump states on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate; Dow drops over 600 points at times; 6-month U.S. long-term yields hit new highs; market odds of a September rate hike reach 40%. Dow closes down 443 points at 45,577; S&P down 1.51%; Nasdaq down 2.01%.

See U.S. stock market close:

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Last week’s U.S. stock movements, details on: U.S. stocks close｜Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire; Dow drops 443 points; 6-month U.S. long-term yields hit new highs; September rate hike odds reach 40%.