CITIC Securities | Broad-based ETF inflows, reversing 10 consecutive weeks of outflows

Text | Huang Wentao, Li Jiajun

In terms of microfunding, 24.54 billion units of偏股型基金 (biased equity funds) were newly established. Net inflow of funds into stock ETFs was -9.09 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs net inflow of 9.08 billion yuan, ending a previous 10-week streak of net outflows. Industry theme ETFs saw a net outflow of -26.30 billion yuan, with significant outflows in cyclical resources and TMT sectors. Margin financing and securities lending funds had a net outflow of -18.31 billion yuan, accounting for 9.3% of trading volume, showing a slight decline week-over-week. Major sectors with inflows included electronics, basic chemicals, and steel. Insurance funds’ balance increased by 1.02 trillion yuan in Q4, with life insurance companies allocating 15.26% of their funds to stocks and property insurance companies allocating 14.53%. Southbound capital saw a net outflow of -5.47 billion yuan this year, with a total net inflow of 175.9 billion yuan since the beginning of the year.

Macroeconomic Liquidity

R007 rate: 1.49%, down 1.4 basis points from last week; DR007 rate: 1.43%, down 2.3 basis points.

1-year government bond yield: 1.26%, down 2.0 basis points; 10-year government bond yield: 1.83%, up 1.6 basis points.

2-year U.S. Treasury yield: 3.88%, up 15.0 basis points; 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.39%, up 11.0 basis points.

2-year China-U.S. interest rate spread: 19.5 basis points; USD/CNY exchange rate change: -2.1 basis points.

Microfunding Liquidity

Public offering funds: 24.54 billion units of new biased equity funds were established. Net inflow into stock ETFs was -9.09 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs net inflow of 9.08 billion yuan, ending a 10-week net outflow. Industry theme ETFs saw a net outflow of -26.30 billion yuan, mainly from cyclical resources and TMT sectors.

Insurance funds: From January to December 2025, insurance companies’ premium income reached 6.12 trillion yuan, continuing growth of 7.4% on the already high two-year growth. In Q4, insurance fund utilization balance increased by 1.02 trillion yuan. As of December 2025, life insurance companies allocated 15.26% of their funds to stocks, while property insurance companies allocated 14.53%.

Margin financing and securities lending: Net outflow of -18.31 billion yuan, accounting for 9.3% of trading volume, with a slight decrease week-over-week. Major sectors with inflows included electronics, basic chemicals, and steel.

Southbound funds: Net outflow of -5.47 billion yuan this year, with a total net inflow of 175.9 billion yuan since the start of the year. Major inflow sectors included banking, retail, and automotive.

Note: Unless otherwise specified, the statistical period for this report is from March 16 to March 20, 2026.

Due to data availability limitations, some data may be estimated based on historical data, which carries risks of model failure and measurement errors. Domestic monetary policy remains less accommodative than expected, posing upward risks to funding costs. Growth stabilization policies may underperform, risking a decline in financing demand. The current global macro environment is uncertain, with increased risks of recession, Federal Reserve monetary policy uncertainty, and potential disruptions to global liquidity. Geopolitical conflicts abroad may intensify, leading to a more complex and severe international political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions.

Huang Wentao: Ph.D. in Economics, visiting scholar at State University of New York. Currently Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, Co-head of Research & Development, member of the Institutional Committee and Investment Committee, and Managing Director. Also serves as master’s supervisor at Nankai University, advisory member of CITIC Reform and Development Research Foundation, director of China Chief Economist Forum, and member of the Chief Economist Committee of China Securities Industry Association. Has participated multiple times in analysis and research projects for government ministries and agencies. Winner of numerous awards including the New Fortune Crystal Ball, Golden Bull Award, and Insurance Asset Management Association. In 2016, awarded first place in fixed income in the New Fortune Best Analysts ranking. In 2024, honored as the Best Chief Economist for high-quality development services.

Li Jiajun: Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Master’s in Finance from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. Formerly worked at Industrial Securities, joined CITIC Securities Research & Development Department in 2021.

Securities Research Report Title: “Broad-based ETF Funds Inflow After 10 Weeks of Outflows — Liquidity Weekly Observation, March Issue 4”

Publication Date: March 23, 2026

Publishing Institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Analysts:

Huang Wentao SAC ID: S1440510120015

Li Jiajun SAC ID: S1440522070004

Massive information, precise analysis, all on Sina Finance APP