The non-ferrous metals sector continues to decline. How do you view the market outlook?

[Global Network Finance News] On March 19, according to data from Eastmoney Choice, sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and non-ferrous metals experienced significant declines.

According to Changjiang Futures, the overall adjustment of non-ferrous metals is driven by increased global inflation expectations. Among them, copper prices are closely linked to macro factors. If crude oil prices continue to rise, inflation concerns may pose a downside risk to copper prices. However, domestic stockpiles beginning to deplete and strong copper consumption could support copper prices, limiting the overall downward space. Additionally, the aluminum supply crisis is still unfolding. On the demand side, the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing companies in China increased by 2.4% week-on-week to 61.9%. Downstream production is gradually picking up, entering the peak season. Regarding inventories, social aluminum ingot stocks are still waiting for a turning point.

CITIC Futures forecasts that gold remains in a phase where “safe-haven support and rate suppression” coexist in the short term, with trends mainly characterized by high-level adjustments and emotional fluctuations. If oil prices continue to rise and transmit to growth expectations, market pricing of stagflation may strengthen again, maintaining the medium-term value of gold allocation. Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to rise, gold prices may further digest valuation pressures in the short term. Silver is likely to continue high-volatility adjustments in the short term, with performance still dependent on marginal changes in the dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite. If the market shifts back to stagflation trading and industrial metal risk appetite stabilizes, silver’s elasticity relative to gold may recover. However, during a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, the pace of silver’s recovery may be slower than during previous upward phases.

Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the financial attributes of precious metals will continue to shine, with the trend of basic metal prosperity remaining unchanged, and positive changes emerging in minor metals. The strategic valuation of small metals continues to be reassessed; under high growth in energy storage demand, the lithium carbonate industry’s reversal cycle is accelerated; cobalt supply has significantly contracted, with a notable supply gap, and prices continue to fluctuate higher; nickel costs are clearly supported, with supply disruptions intensifying marginally. (Wen Hui)