Industry Giant Bahrain Aluminum Announces Production Cut, Impacting Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Market

Securities Times Reporter Liang Qiangang

On March 15, the world’s leading aluminum smelting company, Bahrain Aluminum, announced on its official website that it has initiated controlled and safe shutdown procedures for its Lines 1, 2, and 3 electrolytic aluminum production. These three production lines have a total capacity of 308,400 tons, accounting for 19% of the company’s annual total capacity of 1.623 million tons.

In response to this targeted and selective shutdown, the company stated that amid ongoing transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, it aims to optimize the use of existing raw material inventories and prioritize the stable operation of Lines 4, 5, and 6. During the controlled and safe shutdown, the company will carry out equipment maintenance and repairs on Lines 1, 2, and 3.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities noted that the longer the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts, the more difficult it will be to ensure the normal production of nearly 7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East, which already faces a supply gap of about 9 million tons of alumina. Although high oil prices threaten economic growth and the potential consumption of metals, the ongoing blockade and resulting supply disruptions could lead to a significant short-term loss of supply even if raw material supplies recover later. This shortfall is likely to push electrolytic aluminum prices above 25,000 yuan per ton, benefiting the aluminum sector.

Guohai Securities believes that in the short term, geopolitical factors remain the main market theme, with strong supply-side disturbance expectations, especially impacting overseas markets more significantly than domestic ones. Overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic. After the Spring Festival, domestic demand has gradually recovered, shifting toward peak season, but inventory turning points are still awaited. Regarding alumina, domestic production capacity has generally declined, and rising oil prices have increased transportation costs, driving up alumina prices. Long-term, the aluminum industry’s supply growth remains limited, but demand still has growth potential, and the industry may maintain high prosperity.

As of March 16, there are 31 aluminum industry stocks in the A-share market, with a total market value of 1.22 trillion yuan. According to Securities Times Data Treasure, since the beginning of the year, aluminum stocks have risen an average of 12.51%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by nearly 10 percentage points. Stocks such as Haixing Co., Ding Sheng New Materials, Yiqiu Resources, Nanshan Aluminum, Hongqiao Holdings, and Shenhuo Co. have all gained over 30%.

Haixing Co. has increased by 73.7%, ranking first, and on March 11, it hit a record high during intraday trading. The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of producing the full range of low, medium, and high-voltage electrode foils, making it a leading industry player. Electrode foil is a core raw material for aluminum electrolytic capacitors and can be applied in aerospace and other fields. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 147 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.41%.

Looking at performance data, based on the 2025 annual report, performance quick reports, and the lower limit of profit forecasts (or the announced figures if no lower limit is provided), nine aluminum stocks showed year-on-year profit growth (including turning losses into profits). Leading among them are Ningbo Fubang, Yiqiu Resources, Shunbo Alloys, Zhongfu Industrial, and Jiaozuo Wanfang.

Ningbo Fubang expects a net profit of 50 to 70 million yuan in 2025, a 31-fold to 43.79-fold increase. During the reporting period, driven by rising silver prices, the company’s core electrical contact product business saw rapid growth in revenue and profitability.

Yiqiu Resources forecasts a net profit of 134 million to 199 million yuan in 2025, a 620% to 970% increase. During the period, the continued recovery of downstream industry demand led to higher market prices for the company’s main product, aluminum alloy ingots.

Shunbo Alloys expects a net profit of 210 million to 270 million yuan in 2025, a 222.96% to 315.23% increase. During the period, demand from downstream industries and overall strengthening of non-ferrous metal market prices led to increased sales volume and prices of the company’s main products.