"Stock God" Returns? 5 Minutes Before Trump Announces "Attack Pause," Someone Goes Long $1.5 Billion on US Stocks and Short $200 Million on Crude Oil

March 23-24, the US-Iran conflict suddenly took a turn.

On the evening of March 23, just before the US stock market opened, President Trump unexpectedly announced on social media that he would suspend attacks on Iran’s energy facilities for five days and claimed to have had productive talks with Iran. Following this statement, US stocks surged instantly, international oil prices plummeted, and precious metals quickly rebounded.

Many market analysts view Trump’s latest statement as another “TACO” strategy — meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out” — after last April’s tariff turmoil.

Subsequently, Iran denied the rumors, stating there were no negotiations with the US, calling Trump’s claims “false information” spread to manipulate the market.

Despite Trump’s unilateral announcement of a “pause” in attacks, both the US, Israel, and Iran have not stopped their actions. According to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media on March 24, the US and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure sites located in Isfahan in central Iran and Khorramshahr in the southwest. Iran continued to strike US and Israeli targets with missiles and drones.

US and Israel attack Iran’s energy facilities

Iran launches counterattacks, “breaking through missile defense systems”

According to Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting on March 24, Iran launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel that day, claiming “missiles have broken through multiple Israeli missile defense systems.”

Early this morning (March 24) local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that during the 78th wave of “Real Commitment 4” military operations, Iran launched strikes against multiple locations in Israel and some US military bases in the region.

The statement said that multiple types of missiles and attack drones were used to target Eilat, Dimona, northern Tel Aviv, and other locations, including some US military bases. The Revolutionary Guard stated they would continue to monitor the situation and expand operations if necessary.

The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on March 24 saying they detected missile launches from Iran toward Israel, and their air defense systems began intercepting.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video speech on the evening of March 23 that he “will defend Israel’s fundamental interests under any circumstances”; Israel will destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear programs and severely damage Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu also revealed that Israel recently “eliminated” two Iranian nuclear scientists.

Iran’s Fars News Agency reported on March 24 that the US and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure sites in Isfahan and Khorramshahr. The report said the natural gas company building and gas pressure reduction station in Isfahan were hit, causing damage to some facilities and nearby residences. The natural gas pipeline at the Khorramshahr power plant was also targeted but no casualties occurred.

Trump suddenly “TACO”

Iran denies negotiations with the US: Trump manipulates markets

On March 23, just before the US stock market opened, President Trump unexpectedly announced on social media that he would suspend attacks on Iran’s energy facilities for five days, claiming to have had productive talks with Iran.

Trump told US media on March 23 that Iran “really wants to reach an agreement,” and the US and Iran “could reach an agreement within 5 days or even sooner.” The US is “very interested in reaching an agreement with Iran.”

Trump said the US had conducted “robust” talks with Iran and reached key points of an agreement. He stated that the US had spoken with Iranian leaders but not with the Supreme Leader. The talks were conducted by US Special Envoy Witkov and his son-in-law Kushner with Iran.

Trump also claimed it was “Iran that called us first” because they were “worried about their power plants being bombed by US military.” When asked about “who will control oil in the future and whether Iran can still control oil transportation,” Trump said perhaps he and the “next Iranian Supreme Leader” will jointly control it.

According to Israeli sources on March 23, the US is reportedly in talks with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.

However, Iran completely denied these reports, stating there are “no negotiations” with the US. The US president’s statements are aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for their military plans.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani posted on social media on March 23 denying any negotiations with the US. Larijani said that spreading “fake news” is meant to manipulate financial and oil markets, helping the US and Israel escape their predicament. He emphasized that the Iranian people demand severe punishment for aggressors. All Iranian officials will firmly support their leaders and people until this goal is achieved.

Someone made large trades 5 minutes before Trump’s statement

Wall Street furious: someone “jumped the gun”

Following Trump’s “de-escalation” remarks, US stocks surged, international oil prices dropped sharply, and precious metals rebounded quickly.

However, after the market suddenly reversed, some warned of insider trading. Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time on Monday, approximately 6,200 Brent and WTI crude futures contracts changed hands — just 15 minutes before Trump’s statement. Rough estimates suggest these trades had a nominal value of about $580 million.

As trading volume in Brent and WTI oil futures soared, the S&P 500 futures also rose rapidly, with trading volume increasing significantly. Five minutes before Trump announced the “pause,” traders bought $1.5 billion worth of S&P 500 futures and sold $192 million worth of oil futures. The number of such orders during this period was 4 to 6 times higher than other orders.

A market strategist at a US brokerage said it’s currently difficult to prove causality, but suspicion arises about who was actively selling futures 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement.

Several hedge funds pointed out that this is one of many cases in recent months where large trades occurred before the US government officially announced news.

A trader at a major hedge fund said their energy advisor recently noticed several large trades, which they found unusually timed. Another portfolio manager said that a series of precise large trades was quite frustrating for investors.

Market participants noted that there were no major data releases or Federal Reserve speeches at that time, so there was no reason to rush into trades. On a day without significant events, these trades were unusually large. There’s no doubt someone “jumped the gun.”

Previously, Trump had been accused multiple times of insider trading. On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order at the White House on so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” imposing a 10% minimum tariff on trade partners and higher tariffs on certain countries, causing US stocks to plummet. On April 9, he suddenly announced a suspension of this policy, and US stocks surged. Before the rally, Trump urged “buying in” on social media, and his affiliated companies’ stock prices doubled that day, outperforming the market.

It is reported that Trump’s companies’ stock prices surged by 21%, and a wealthy friend of his gained $2.5 billion in a single day. Several Democratic lawmakers in the US suspect insider trading and have called for congressional investigations.

Thousands of US Marines

To arrive in the Middle East within 5 days

On March 23, local time, The Wall Street Journal citing two US officials reported that thousands of US Marines are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East on March 27. This date coincides with the “final deadline” set by President Trump for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The report states that the amphibious assault ship USS Lemoore, the amphibious dock landing ship USS New Orleans, and approximately 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit will enter the US Central Command area of responsibility. However, this force will still need several days to reach the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Department of Defense has also ordered an additional Marine unit to deploy to CENTCOM, aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island, based in California. This unit will depart in a few weeks and will take several weeks to arrive at CENTCOM.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)