Suddenly, a dive! New news from the Strait of Hormuz!

Hormuz Strait, new updates!

Today, during Asian trading hours, international oil prices plummeted sharply. WTI crude futures dropped over 4% at one point, and Brent crude futures nearly 3%. On the news front, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is scheduled to hold a special council meeting from March 18 to 19 at its headquarters in London, to discuss how to respond to the current impact on maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas. Additionally, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Brussels for urgent talks with European officials on navigation and security issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

Furthermore, according to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.56 million barrels for the week ending March 13, far exceeding the 380,000 barrels expected in a Reuters survey. Meanwhile, Iraq has signed an agreement to resume crude exports via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which further pressures oil prices downward. According to a recent report from JPMorgan Chase, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is sparse, with “the vast majority related to Iran.” Iran appears to be releasing some ships after completing nuclear verification. Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler shows that currently, only about 2 oil tankers pass through the strait daily, compared to around 100 before the conflict.

Regarding Middle East tensions, according to CCTV News, on March 18 local time, Iran announced that it launched missiles carrying cluster munitions at the Tel Aviv area in Israel in retaliation for the killing of Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Early on March 18, air raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem and other parts of Israel, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stating they detected incoming Iranian missiles.

Latest updates on the Strait of Hormuz

On March 18, international oil prices declined amid volatility. As of 18:15 Beijing time, WTI crude futures fell 1.5% to $94.10 per barrel; Brent crude futures dropped 0.21% to $103.20 per barrel.

The IMO is scheduled to hold a special council meeting in London from March 18 to 19 to discuss responses to the current regional shipping impacts, especially in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas.

The Financial Times on March 17 quoted IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim, stating that deploying warships for escort cannot “guarantee 100% safety” for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and risks still exist. Military assistance “is neither a long-term solution nor a sustainable fix.”

On March 17, UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that restoring its safe operation depends on ending the conflict. Haq said that UN Secretary-General Guterres will go to Brussels for urgent talks with European officials on navigation and security issues in the Strait.

According to BOC International, the current high oil prices are unlikely to last. “Friendly” ships’ safe passage through Iran remains a key concern. The bank’s research team predicts that Brent crude could stay around $100 per barrel by mid-2026. The US-Iran conflict has entered its third week, with no reliable way to ease tensions. Supply through the Strait remains severely restricted, and there has been no response from US partners to President Trump’s call for joint military action to reopen the strait.

Severe shipping contraction

As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has become extremely limited. While some ships still pass, the passage is more like “controlled release.”

JPMorgan Chase’s latest report states that shipping in the Strait is sparse, with “the vast majority related to Iran.” Iran seems to be releasing some ships after completing nuclear verification.

The bank’s analysts wrote, “In effect, this creates a situation where the strait is not officially closed, but transit increasingly depends on political understanding with Tehran.”

Ship tracking data shows that a few ships permitted to pass are avoiding the usual routes, instead traveling through the channels between Larak and Qeshm islands, hugging the Iranian coast. The report notes, “This is not standard routing, but a process aimed at verifying ship ownership and cargo, allowing ships unrelated to the US and its allies to pass.”

For example, some ships heading to India, after communication with relevant authorities and Iran, have received clearance. The Indian liquefied petroleum gas carrier Nanda Devi, after being authorized to pass, arrived at Vadinar port on March 17.

Kpler data indicates that currently, only about 2 oil tankers pass through the strait daily, compared to around 100 before the conflict. About 400 oil tankers remain stranded in the surrounding waters.

In response to the blockade, Trump has urged allies to send warships to help restart the strait, proposing the formation of a multinational naval escort.

Experts generally agree that the main obstacle is not the presence of warships but whether Iran’s low-cost deterrence can be neutralized.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said, “Ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. Until we eliminate Iran’s layered asymmetric capabilities—mines, fast attack boats, submarines, and drones—we won’t be willing to let commercial ships or escort vessels pass.”

Geographical conditions also complicate escort efforts. The narrowest part of the strait is less than 30 miles wide, within range of missiles, drones, and small boats. John Bradford, a former US Navy officer and co-founder of Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, said, “Escort ships can only provide limited protection, meaning only a small number of ships can be safeguarded at a time.”

Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, stated that as long as Iran maintains a “sufficient threat,” even without an official blockade, the risk to ships makes the route “unbearable.”