China Liquor Association: Baijiu Industry Enters a Turning Point Year, the Era of Easy Money is Over

Ask AI · How can alcohol companies’ C-end strategies truly align with consumer needs?

During the industry forum held on March 23rd during the Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, Liu Zhenguo, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, stated that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the Baijiu industry. In 2025, the Baijiu sector faced issues such as supply and demand imbalance, high inventory levels, unstable pricing, and weakening consumption scenarios. Behind these problems is the industry’s return to rationality after experiencing rapid growth since 2015.

Recently, several alcohol companies announced their 2025 performance results, showing further slowdown or decline in growth compared to the previous year. Kweichow Moutai (000799.SZ) forecasted a loss of 33 to 49 million yuan in 2025, compared to a profit of 12.49 million yuan in the same period last year; Jinhui Liquor (603919.SH) reported revenue of 2.92 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, down 8.7% year-over-year, after double-digit growth last year; Shede Spirits (600702.SH) achieved revenue of 4.42 billion yuan in 2025, down 17.5% year-over-year, with net profit of 230 million yuan, down 35.5%.

Liu Zhenguo said that under the backdrop of rationality returning, the Baijiu market is undergoing a series of new changes. On one hand, although Baijiu prices continue to decline, as prices become more rational, some surveyed liquor merchants and companies have reported that sales are also increasing. On the other hand, traditional Baijiu consumption scenarios are shrinking, but new scenarios such as light drinking and micro-intoxication are emerging. Categories like fruit wines and dew wines in fermented beverages are experiencing growth, and the beverage consumption landscape is becoming more diverse.

Since the beginning of this year, more and more alcohol companies have announced a “full shift to C,” aiming to shorten the distance to consumers and seek new growth. However, Liu Zhenguo believes that many current C-end strategies are still based on existing product systems to target segmented consumer groups through channel flattening and consumer interaction. This is the strategy that alcohol companies want for their C-end. Moving forward, it is recommended that companies reverse-engineer from actual consumer needs to reconstruct their products, channels, and pricing systems.

(This article is from Yicai)