【Jiantou Silicon Energy】Polysilicon Weekly Report | Fundamentals Continue to Deteriorate, Polysilicon Breaks Down Further

(Source: CFC Metal Research)

CFC Metal Research

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Author | Liu Jiaqing
CITIC Construction Investment Futures Research and Development Department

Report completion date | March 22, 2026

Futures trading consultation qualification: Securities Permit [2011] No. 1461

Polycrystalline silicon futures prices are weak, spot prices are falling.

Polycrystalline silicon futures prices have broken downward, and our estimates suggest that futures prices may have fallen below the mainstream producers’ production costs, fundamentally reflecting market pessimism about future demand. On one hand, downstream operations remain at low levels, and from April 1, export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other sectors will be canceled, potentially worsening demand marginally; on the other hand, silicon material manufacturers face high inventory pressures, with industry-wide inventory levels approaching nearly six months, including about four months for silicon material producers. As a result, silicon producers are mainly selling at low prices to clear stock. Under weak demand and high inventory pressure, some silicon producers may resume production recently, further dampening market sentiment.

PS2605 is expected to operate within the range of 32,000–45,000 yuan/ton. For now, it is advisable to observe.

1. Market Review

This week, polycrystalline silicon futures remained weak.

In the spot market, according to the Silicon Industry Branch, the transaction prices for N-type re-investment materials ranged from 42,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 43,200 yuan/ton, down 4.42% week-on-week; N-type granular silicon transaction prices ranged from 43,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 44,000 yuan/ton.

2. Price Influencing Factors

3. Cost

4. Market performance

5. Demand

Infolink reports that the average transaction prices for N-type G10L, N-type G12R, and N-type G12 silicon wafers are 1.05 (0.00%), 1.15 (0.00%), and 1.35 (0.00%) yuan/piece, respectively.

For solar cells, Infolink data shows that the weekly average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N are 0.410 (-2.40%), 0.420 (-2.40%), and 0.410 (-2.40%) yuan/W.

For modules, Infolink data indicates that the weekly average prices for TOPCon centralized and distributed are 0.700 (0.00%) and 0.790 (0.00%) yuan/W.

5. Supply and Demand Balance

Author: Liu Jiaqing

Futures trading consultation registration number: Z0022848

Email: liujiaqish@csc.com.cn

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