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Transaction Activity Declines, ChiNext Index Leads Gains | Sentiment and Valuation March Issue 3
(Source: Yiguan Trend)
Authors: Fang Yi / Li Jian
Key Points: Last week (March 16–20, 2026), trading activity declined, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Broad-based indices: valuations mostly fell, with the ChiNext Index leading the rally. Industry indices: PE valuations declined across the board, with banks leading in PB valuations. Sentiment: trading activity mostly decreased, turnover rates declined, and total transaction volume fell across the board. ERP: increased month-over-month.
Summary
▶ Index Valuations: Mostly declined, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Broad-based indices: mostly declined, with the ChiNext Index leading the rally. PE-TTM historical percentile: most indices declined, ChiNext Index led with a 0.7% increase. PB-LF historical percentile: most indices declined, ChiNext Index led with a 0.2% increase. Style indices: valuations mostly declined, financials led the gains. PE-TTM historical percentile: most styles declined, financials led with a 1.1% increase. PB-LF historical percentile: most styles declined, financials led with a 0.5% increase.
▶ Industry Valuations: PE valuations declined across the board. Industry PE: valuations declined across all sectors, with communications declining the least. PE-TTM historical percentile: valuations declined across all sectors, communications down 0.2%. PE-G comparison: power equipment and new energy have good value for money. Industry PB: valuations mostly declined, banks led the gains. PB-LF historical percentile: most industries declined, banks led with a 2.3% increase. PB-ROE comparison: banks are cost-effective.
▶ Sentiment: trading activity mostly declined, turnover rates declined, and total transaction volume decreased across the board. Turnover rate: index turnover rates mostly declined, with ChiNext leading the increase at 7.2%. Total transaction volume: declined across all indices, with CSI 1000 falling the most at 15.3%. Margin financing balance: as of March 19, 2026, the balance was 2.65 trillion yuan, down 0.06 trillion from March 13, 2026. Proportion of financing purchases: as of March 19, 2026, financing purchases accounted for 9.02% of total A-share trading volume, down 3.67 percentage points from the weekly average.
▶ ERP: Slight month-over-month increase. Wind All A Risk Premium is 4.1%, up 0.12 percentage points from March 13, 2026. Note: valuation changes compare March 20, 2026, to March 13, 2026; turnover rate and transaction volume changes compare the weekly average (March 16–20, 2026) to the previous week (March 9–13, 2026).
▶ Risk Warning: High uncertainty in overseas economies. Uncertainty in global geopolitical situations.
Risk Warning
High uncertainty in overseas economies. U.S. domestic economic and policy uncertainties may disrupt global risk assets.
Uncertainty in global geopolitics. Major power rivalries have entered deep waters, with regional conflicts evolving in unpredictable directions and intensities, potentially causing market shocks.
Disclaimer
Guotai Haitong Strategy Team
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