Just Now! Iran Launches Missiles! Crude Oil Surges! Goldman Sachs Issues Urgent Warning

Uncertainty in the Middle East remains high.

According to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency, on March 24, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying they detected Iran launching missiles toward Israel, and the air defense systems began intercepting. International oil prices rose again, with Brent crude futures briefly surpassing $100 per barrel during the day.

Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, stated that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push up energy prices, which could slow economic growth and increase inflation. The firm raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 30% and expects the second-half GDP growth rate to fall below the potential trend line of 1.25% to 1.75%.

Oil Prices Rise

During Asian trading hours on March 24, international oil prices surged again. Brent crude futures briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, and as of 10:50 Beijing time, the intraday increase was 3.83%, at $99.61 per barrel; WTI crude rose by 3.45%, to $91.19 per barrel.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Israel Defense Forces announced on the 24th that they detected Iran launching missiles toward Israel, and the air defense systems began intercepting.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told the UK Parliament Liaison Committee on the 23rd that the UK must be prepared for the possibility that the Iran conflict will not end “quickly,” and called for negotiations to reach an agreement.

Sunak emphasized that at the start of the US-Israel military strikes on Iran, he warned that the UK must be prepared for a prolonged conflict.

He said that on Iran issues, any UK action must have a legal basis and a well-considered feasible plan. Therefore, the UK initially did not participate in strikes on Iran and later only engaged in “collective defense” actions. He stressed, “This is not our war; we will not be dragged into it.”

Sunak called for a quick resolution to the conflict and “to reach an agreement through negotiations, setting strict conditions for Iran, especially regarding nuclear weapons.”

U.S. President Donald Trump previously stated that the U.S. had engaged in “strong” talks with Iran, describing the dialogue as “perfect” and that an agreement outline had been formed.

On the 23rd, Trump told the media that the U.S. had held talks with Iran’s leadership, “We are talking with what we believe is the most respected ‘leader’.” According to Israeli media reports citing sources, the U.S. is in dialogue with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency denied on the 23rd that Larijani had met with U.S. officials, calling such reports a “big lie” and claiming that some parties are trying to create “political and social rifts” in Iran.

A Giant Oil Tanker Passes Through the Strait of Hormuz

According to the latest news, a giant oil tanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. If confirmed, this would be the first observed vessel to successfully transit the route and export Iraqi crude after the recent Middle East conflicts.

Bloomberg’s tanker tracking data shows that the Omega Trader, managed by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, is now located near Mumbai, India. Reports indicate that the last signal from this ship was over ten days ago, inside the Persian Gulf.

Since the outbreak of conflict, only a few oil tankers have transited the strait, making any signs of navigation highly market-sensitive. As the US, Israel, and Iran enter the fourth week of war, the route involved in about 20% of global oil trade remains blocked, causing what is described as the “largest supply disruption in oil market history.”

Based on the destination of the aforementioned tanker, there may be Indian mediation behind the navigation.

Last week, reports indicated that, amid diplomatic contacts, the Iranian navy escorted an Indian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. During the transit, Indian ships maintained radio contact with the Iranian navy. Iran recorded the ship’s flag, name, departure and destination ports, and crew nationality (all Indian), guiding it along the agreed route.

This also supports some analysts’ speculation that Iran is implementing a “traffic control system” in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing friendly ships to pass safely while others worry about attacks.

Navigation data also shows that in recent days, other tankers have departed from the Persian Gulf.

For example, the Al Ruwais, loaded with naphtha from the UAE in early March, is currently heading to Asia; Abu Dhabi-III, also loaded in the UAE, arrived at the Indian port of Vadinar on Monday. Due to signal shutdowns during transit, only after leaving the Persian Gulf can the full navigation status be confirmed.

Goldman Sachs’ Latest Warning

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team stated in their latest report that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will push up energy prices, which could slow economic growth and increase inflation. Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. GDP growth rate in the second half to fall below the potential trend line of 1.25% to 1.75%.

Goldman’s commodities strategists estimate that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until mid-April. This will delay the peak of Brent crude prices and slow their subsequent decline, as strategic reserves and other inventories need to be replenished.

Jan Hatzius noted that although the negative energy shocks to the U.S. are relatively manageable, the economy still faces two major cyclical slowdown pressures in the second half:

“First, the fiscal measures enacted last summer (including middle-class tax cuts and full expensing of manufacturing investments) may lose their boost to growth in the second half,” Goldman said.

“Second, the war has tightened financial conditions by about 60 basis points. Goldman estimates that if this continues, it could drag about 0.5 percentage points from economic growth in the second half.”

Goldman expects that under baseline energy price forecasts, the U.S. unemployment rate will rise to 4.6%; in a severely adverse scenario, it could reach 4.8% to 4.9%.

Notably, Goldman warns of the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment. “While AI’s impact on the labor market remains moderate for now, we expect this influence to intensify from 2026 onward.”

In response to rising inflation expectations, the bond market has recently priced in rate hikes. However, Goldman believes the market has overreacted, maintaining its forecast of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with recession risks possibly prompting more aggressive easing.

Goldman states, “Given the outlook for employment and core inflation, we still see a baseline scenario of two 25 basis point rate cuts (in September and December) as reasonable.”