Is Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate Market Experiencing a "Minor Spring"? Second-hand Home Transactions Far Exceed New Homes, with Some "Bargain Deals" Closing in Less Than a Week

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the quality of the “Golden March and Silver April” directly influences the market trend for the entire year.

In early spring 2026, Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively emerged from the low transaction period after the Spring Festival holiday, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising in tandem, and market warmth continuing to spread.

According to visits to some properties, conversations with real estate agents, and insights from multiple research institutions, the current “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has effectively arrived. At the same time, the market logic has also undergone a significant change: some popular “bargain listings” (properties priced significantly lower than similar properties in the same area, offering high cost-performance) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties is shrinking.

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are leading the way in the second-hand housing market, becoming the main drivers of this warming trend. Meanwhile, the new housing market shows a deep divide: since the beginning of the year, Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased compared to last year; luxury homes in core areas of Guangzhou remain hot, while first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. In short, the pattern between the primary and secondary markets has reversed, and the supply structure is being reshaped, which is the most distinctive feature of this “small spring.”

Shenzhen Bao’an Xinan District new development sales office Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

Second-hand Homes Lead the “Small Spring” Movement

This round of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate “small spring” is primarily driven by second-hand homes, with the fundamental market logic rewritten.

From data to frontline experience, second-hand homes are leading the recovery rhythm.

Shenzhen was the first to ignite the market, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by Le You Jia stores, after the Spring Festival, second-hand home contract volumes surged by 132% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen has rebounded to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Image source: Shenzhen Le You Jia Research Center

Data from Beike Research Institute also clearly shows that from March 2 to 8, Shenzhen’s second-hand home contract volume increased by 118% month-on-month, with a single-day transaction volume on March 8 reaching a nearly one-year high, continuing to rise for two consecutive weeks.

Additionally, market sentiment has also improved. According to the latest monitoring data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, in February, the number of second-hand homes listed by their partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. Unreasonable sell-offs have significantly decreased, and the market is gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

Image source: Beike Research Institute

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are the most active. For example, in our area, the Liyuan headquarters school district homes, like the 83-square-meter three-bedroom at Yuanling Garden, are in higher demand after the holiday, with both inquiries and transactions increasing significantly compared to before the holiday,” said Liu Anying, a senior agent in Shenzhen Futian Yuanling area, on March 14.

Liu Anying mentioned that the transaction speed of “bargain listings” in the second-hand market has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some listings selling in less than a week. “For example, at Hailing Court in Futian, a roughly 108-square-meter three-bedroom, the owner’s listed price is generally above 8.2 million yuan, which translates to about 77,400 yuan per square meter. Some owners are eager to sell, and with a listed price of 7.55 million yuan, it can be sold in about a week,” Liu said.

Part of the second-hand housing listings in Cui Zhu, Luohu District, Shenzhen Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

In fact, similar phenomena are also present in Luohu District, Shenzhen. As transaction volumes increase, owners’ attitudes toward listing have stabilized—they are no longer in a rush to sell, and bargaining space has shrunk significantly.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in Cui Zhu Yuan, Luohu, which the reporter visited at the end of last year, was initially listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent revealed that the lowest possible price could be around 2.3 million yuan. However, by March this year, the agent told the reporter that the lowest asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has also experienced a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s second-hand home transactions reached 247 units in a single day, a 25.4% increase from the previous period; for the week of March 2–8, total transactions reached 849 units, an 118.8% increase. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continued increases in viewing appointments at agencies. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index jumped by 43.5 points to 71.78, indicating strong industry confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing the core characteristic of “second-hand homes outperforming new homes.” The number of new listings for second-hand homes has decreased year-on-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this also stimulates replacement demand of “selling old and buying new,” gradually smoothing the market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, also expressed similar views. He believes that this warming is not a short-term policy-driven rebound but a resonance of multiple factors: policy optimization, confidence restoration, and concentrated release of demand for self-occupation. The continuous increase in second-hand homes and the simultaneous rise in new homes have laid a more solid foundation for this “small spring.”

Structural Trends in the New Housing Market

Unlike the overall hot second-hand market, the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a broad price increase but rather a typical “structural trend.”

For example, in Guangzhou, the luxury housing market has repeatedly broken transaction records, boosting nearby new housing viewing interest. In February, the Tianhe Ma Chang land parcel was sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium rate of 26.6%, with a residential land price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou land prices.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex at Poly Yuexi Bay in Zhujiang New Town was sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units of luxury duplexes at Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5 sold in a single day, totaling 718.7 million yuan, with luxury homes in the core area experiencing unprecedented demand.

In contrast to the record-breaking luxury market, Guangzhou’s affordable new housing segment shows a clear “discounted volume-driven” trend.

Guangzhou real estate agent Luo Jiamin told reporters that many affordable homes are now sold through discounts and special offers to attract buyers. “Not offering discounts makes it hard to sell, even if there are many viewers.”

According to data from Centaline Property, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a slight decrease of 13,000 square meters from January. Due to reduced new supply in key areas, the market mainly absorbs existing stock, with inventory decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in new housing supply. According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

The slow pace of new housing entering the market prevents large-scale concentration, leading to a structural pattern where core areas see volume growth and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas rely on price reductions to boost sales.

According to Centaline data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transaction volume for commercial residential properties was 964 units, with 1,703 second-hand units transferred.

Some Shenzhen projects released hot sales posters in March

Although overall new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than second-hand sales, the reporter noticed that many projects released promotional posters in March. For example, Longhua’s HongRongYuan GuanCheng sold 41 units over two days (March 7–8), Ocean City·Chengming Garden sold 39 units last week, and China State Construction’s Pengchen Yunzhu sold 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually coming to market in 2025, and some developers increasing promotional efforts, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.