Everbright Futures: March 20 Agricultural Products Daily Report

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Protein Meal: (Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013637)

On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed higher, supported by rising crude oil prices and affected fertilizer supplies. U.S. soybean meal rose, soybean oil fell. Brent and WTI crude oil prices surged then pulled back. The U.S. soybean export sales report showed that for the week ending March 12, net sales were 298,200 tons, down 35% from the previous week and 42% below the four-week average, below market expectations. Among them, net sales to mainland China increased by 79,900 tons. The Buenos Aires Exchange stated that last week, the soybean planting areas in Argentina received much-needed rainfall, avoiding potential yield losses caused by prolonged drought during the growing season. Harvest is approaching. The exchange maintained Argentina’s soybean production estimate at 48.5 million tons, with harvest starting in April. Domestically, protein meal fluctuated. Wenhua commodities retreated, funds exited, sentiment cooled. Live pig prices continued to decline, losses widened, breeding enthusiasm decreased, negatively impacting protein meal demand prospects. Strategy: short-term participation.

Oils and Fats: (Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013637)

On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose, ending a two-day decline. Malaysia will soon celebrate Eid al-Fitr, with markets closed from March 21 to March 23, reopening on March 24. Rapeseed oil prices increased amid concerns that soaring fertilizer prices will raise planting costs. U.S. soybean oil retreated as the market awaits the implementation of biofuel policies. Domestic oils and fats fluctuated, with palm oil underperforming compared to soybean and rapeseed oils, showing sector divergence. Spot market supply and sales were thin; high prices suppressed demand. Previously, ships arrived at ports, leading to ample palm oil supply and rising inventories to medium-high levels. Soybean crushing plants will shut down gradually from March to April due to maintenance, soybean shortages, and other factors, slightly reducing soybean oil stocks. The spot market remains dull, and futures are correcting downward. Continued focus on Middle East developments and commodity sentiment. Strategy: reduce long positions.

Live Pigs: (Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

On Thursday, live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract 2605 closing down 1.34% at 10,335 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Zhuo Chuang data showed that yesterday’s average price of live pigs in China was 9.98 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day. The baseline delivery area in Henan had an average price of 10 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg; prices in Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Shandong also declined. Demand was insufficient to support prices, but most breeders were willing to sell, leading to a relaxed attitude toward price support and more price reductions. The main trend of pig prices is downward. With supply pressure and off-season demand, pig prices are expected to remain weak. Before supply pressures ease, pig prices are likely to stay weak, with attention to feed costs and surrounding commodity price fluctuations affecting pig prices.

Eggs: (Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

On Thursday, the main egg contract 2605 fluctuated in the morning and declined in the afternoon, ending down 0.97% at 3,367 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices, according to Zhuo Chuang, were 3.16 yuan/jin yesterday, stable from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin shell eggs were 3.05 yuan/jin, Heishan brown eggs 3 yuan/jin, both stable; in sales areas, Puxi brown eggs were 3.24 yuan/jin, Guangzhou brown eggs 3.45 yuan/jin, both stable. Short-term, egg prices in production areas are expected to remain stable or slightly rise, with terminal markets purchasing on demand, keeping prices relatively steady. Rising feed raw material prices provide some support for spot egg prices. Continued monitoring of supply data and surrounding commodity prices is necessary to assess impacts on egg prices.

Corn: (Wang Na, Professional Qualification Number: F0243534; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0001262)

On Thursday, corn futures continued to fluctuate. Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions persist, supporting crude oil prices and providing bullish support to commodities. Macro factors and wheat supply and demand complexities caused futures to oscillate. In the spot market, northeastern corn prices remained relatively stable; local grain sources are limited, and most deep-processing purchase prices stay high. Although wheat auctions are active, their impact on northeastern corn is limited. In North China, corn prices are generally high with slight fluctuations; local grain prices remain stable. Market sentiment remains bullish, with downstream inventories somewhat replenished, leading to overall stable prices with minor adjustments in some areas. In the sales zones, corn prices are mainly firm. Port arrivals in northern ports have decreased, southern port inventories are low, and downstream feed companies are replenishing stocks at low prices, resulting in low trading activity and some demand diversion to imports and substitutes, with mostly negotiated transactions. The supply and demand fundamentals for corn show no significant changes; attention should be paid to subsequent policy-driven grain auctions. Technically, the main contract 2605 continues to watch the 2400 yuan level; after profit-taking, a short-term bearish outlook is maintained.