Weekend Chat Session

The profit chart is open; I’ll share it when the market is tough. When the market turns good and everyone starts sharing, I won’t post anymore. [Taoguba]

The last post received too many replies, so I’m starting a new thread for discussion.
Since the end of January, I haven’t used a traffic card for my posts, so most viewers are old followers. It’s been two months now, with slight fluctuations in followers, maintaining around 4,700. This can be seen as a period of consolidation without volume, a kind of sideways shakeout. In the stock trading journey, there are many peers, but those who share the same path and frequency need time to verify each other.

Yesterday, I saw a vectorized surrender letter written by the funds.

Let’s review the previous technical post (Part II): Anti-quantitative strategy:
(1) Strategy One: Abandon short-term trading, embrace medium- and long-term investing

Logic: Quantitative trading exists only in the trading world; it cannot control the growth of high-quality companies in the real world. Companies are organizations formed by people fulfilling their roles. The essence of a high-quality company is the collective strength of this organization. In the real world, a company’s growth is fundamentally based on human consensus and recognition of this collective strength. Therefore, the future value increase brought by the growth of high-quality companies is human-centric and future-oriented, which quant strategies cannot predict or learn at present.

This future attribute, when projected into trading, is called medium- to long-term, not short-term. For example, a stock is currently 10 yuan, and three years later, it’s 20 yuan. During these three years, quant can harvest daily profits from human traders, but its current strategy is not to “recognize this stock as high-quality and aim for a threefold increase in three years while also doing short-term trades to harvest human traders.”

Quant mainly profits from market liquidity and emotional fluctuations. If you don’t watch the market or trade, the “jumping up and down” on intraday charts won’t cause any real damage. As long as the company’s performance continues to grow, all short-term fluctuations will eventually be smoothed out. Time is a friend to humans but an enemy to quant (high-frequency strategies).

Humans should choose fundamentally excellent stocks with long-term growth logic, buy and hold for the long term, and ignore intraday volatility.

This returns to the most primitive and pure dimension of investment trading.

Abandon the short-term trading techniques refined over years, give up the obsession that a little more effort will lead to enlightenment, and return to the initial you who only looks for high-quality companies when first starting to trade stocks.

There is also a force that can defeat quant strategies: the power of market leaders, i.e., market collective strength. When market sentiment has been suppressed for a long time, market leaders will emerge, rallying various forces to form a collective.

This is easy to understand. From late November to early January, when the market collective strength was still present, aerospace was the main theme, and most people could make money. Quant strategies couldn’t do much harm and even helped. Starting January 14, the main theme disappeared, and until today, most people are losing money.

Why leave the main theme? Because everyone felt pressure from JG. The ban on hype, crackdown on funds, and criticism of short-term trading. Later, funds left the market, and everyone gradually left the main theme for various reasons and made different choices. These rotations, under quant control, repeatedly cut everyone’s positions.

I’ve always said that the sentiment of the A-share market is a cultural product, not subject to will. Our historical cultural pattern is that separation and reunion are cyclical.
Compare this to the most familiar difficult moment—抗日 (Anti-Japanese War). When our nation faced invaders, the phrase “absolutely no resistance” shattered all resistance efforts. For survival or livelihood, everyone made different choices: the Chinese army, local militias, 8L guerrillas, security groups, police, Han J, Wang P.J., Huang Xie J., Manchu P.J., Mongolian P.J., bandits, etc.
In times of hardship, having too many choices leads to divisions, making unity and collective effort impossible. This weakness stems from Confucian culture over thousands of years.
Only after GG cooperation, with the phrase “Everyone, regardless of age, has the duty to defend,” did resistance efforts unite. This resilience and patience, cultivated over millennia, only erupt into rebellion when pushed too far.

Now, compare this to today: a D-led government, with a minority D faction participating in politics and resolutely supporting it. This form aligns with our culture—essentially a leader-centric culture, where everyone benefits by banding together around the leader. Our culture cannot tolerate too many choices; giving too many leads to internal chaos.

Returning to the stock market, the same principle applies: culture determines that too many choices cannot be given. When the market is suppressed for a long time, leaders will emerge, guiding everyone to choose only the leader and participate in the main theme led by the leader. Only then can everyone prosper, and resistance succeed. Otherwise, we’ll always be cut by quant strategies.

Talking about leaders, in a private chat, it seems that currently Guosheng, Huadian, and Yunnan Energy look more like leaders. When the WangWang team doesn’t come to rescue the market, sentiment is suppressed to the extreme, making group formation more likely. But each has its drawbacks: one is considered a “big stock,” so some won’t participate, making collective strength harder; another should be adjusted downward to test its strength through divergence; another is still under regulatory scrutiny.
Common themes include: one is photovoltaic + energy storage, another is coal power transitioning to green energy, and another is power + energy storage.

Finally, a mental reassurance: the market is very poor right now, so some encouragement is needed.
If your principal is 100,000 yuan, earning just 1% daily by year-end, it would be over 700,000 yuan; earning 2% daily, over 5 million yuan.
It’s not about daily “leader strategies.” Teacher Da Zengzi has been testing this daily; it’s not feasible. You might not do better than him.
What matters is steady daily profits, avoiding losses to break compound growth, and not trading during bad market conditions—trade more when the market is good, less when it’s bad.

That’s all for the weekend.

Recently, the poor market has kept friends from doing data analysis. Brother Mao doesn’t want to see friends lose money or be unhappy with the data. I haven’t been posting with traffic lately. GS and FES can make money but I don’t want to take their profits because they aren’t my stocks. Your gains and losses are on you. I just occasionally mentioned group cooperation based on market needs. If I take money, it would be a windfall that drains my luck. Some friends have lost money and are still doing data analysis; I thank them. It’s noted in my mind, and I keep records. When the market improves, I’ll give you feedback.