Second-hand housing heat rises, transactions pick up - a "small spring" is expected in first-tier cities

The peak season for real estate transactions, “Golden March and Silver April,” has arrived as scheduled.

Last Saturday (March 14), Shanghai set a new high for the year with 1,472 second-hand housing transactions signed online in a single day; Beijing’s housing market saw month-on-month growth in both new and second-hand transactions driven by policy incentives; Guangzhou experienced active viewing and transaction volumes for second-hand homes; Shenzhen also saw a significant increase in second-hand home transactions in the first half of March.

Every year in March and April, the real estate market reaches a critical point. Since the beginning of the year usually coincides with the Spring Festival, housing demand is deferred; additionally, demand for school district homes typically releases in March and April, boosting overall market activity. As a result, market attention is especially focused on these two months, which influence the annual market trend.

This year’s “Golden March and Silver April” are even more distinctive. The real estate market has been rational for several years, and the public is particularly hopeful that this year’s “small spring” can achieve simultaneous growth in volume and price, leading the market into a new development cycle. According to multiple sources from the 21st Century Business Herald, current first-tier cities’ transaction volumes have significantly rebounded month-on-month, while prices remain relatively stable. Analysts suggest that under policy stimulation, cities like Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a concentrated release of demand, making a promising “small spring” transaction volume likely; Guangzhou and Shenzhen also show signs of recovery, with overall momentum expected to strengthen.

Transaction volume is rising in first-tier cities, prices are stable, and the national real estate market is showing a good start.

“Small Spring” is here

Shanghai is the most prominent city in this round of “small spring.”

According to CRIC, from March 9 to March 15, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market experienced explosive growth, with weekly transactions reaching 7,233 units, the highest in nearly five years (since 2021).

Data from Shanghai Online Real Estate shows that on March 18, transaction volume for second-hand homes reached 906 units on a weekday, remaining high in the market.

The recent boom in Shanghai’s transactions is driven by new policies. On February 25, Shanghai issued the “Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City’s Real Estate Policies,” introducing seven measures to stabilize the market, including shortening social security contribution periods for non-Shanghai residents, relaxing housing purchase eligibility with a residence permit, and increasing maximum housing loan amounts under the housing provident fund, collectively known as the “Shanghai Seven Policies.”

A national real estate company’s Shanghai client research manager told 21st Century Business Herald that each new policy in recent years has prompted some demand to enter the market early. This time, combined with the “Golden March and Silver April” season, overall market performance has seen a surge in transactions, with prices remaining stable and no significant decline. “From the data we’ve observed, since December last year, Shanghai’s second-hand home prices have not further fallen and remain quite resilient, which is a positive signal.”

Beijing’s policies from December last year are also still influencing the market. According to 58 Anju Research Institute, after the Spring Festival, with offline sales offices and agent stores fully reopening, housing search enthusiasm rebounded rapidly. On February 28, Beijing’s new home market heat index rose to 60.3, and second-hand housing to 66.1; by March 14, these figures further increased to 59.9 and 65.6, respectively, indicating ongoing policy-driven effects.

In terms of transaction volume, from January 26 to February 1, Beijing recorded 4,244 transactions, the highest in 12 weeks, over 30% higher than the previous week. The market gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with 2,980 transactions in the week of March 1-8.

Unlike Beijing and Shanghai, where policies are supporting the market, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are experiencing a rebound driven purely by rigid housing demand.

Public data shows that in the first two weeks of March, Guangzhou’s second-hand home online signing volume exceeded 4,000 units, with a peak of 271 units on March 15, the highest since 2023.

A real estate agent in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, told 21st Century Business Herald, “We’ve been very busy lately, showing homes, meeting clients, and signing contracts every day. Now, you have to queue at the signing centers, which is different from the end of last year. Our agency has already closed 9 deals this month.”

Shenzhen’s data is also very straightforward: according to monitoring data from Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, by March 18, the city’s total transactions for new and second-hand residential properties exceeded 4,000 units. Among these, new homes totaled 1,474 units, up 38.9% from February; second-hand homes transferred totaled 2,715 units, up 58.6% from February.

The Shenzhen Centaline Research Center notes that after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen’s market has continued to rebound, with a clear increase in buyer willingness. Many new projects have lowered prices to promote sales, with notable effects; second-hand transactions have also quickly warmed up, signaling the arrival of a “small spring.”

Signals need strengthening

Market transaction volume is clearly rising, and prices remain stable. Second-hand homeowners are showing a “hold” mentality.

According to information from multiple agents in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen obtained by 21st Century Business Herald, second-hand homeowners are relatively firm on prices, with limited room for negotiation. “Earlier, most cost-effective second-hand homes have been sold. Since the Spring Festival, prices are hard to negotiate because homeowners see the market improving and prefer to rent out rather than lower prices. So, prices are generally stable now, but if prices loosen, sales will be quick,” said an agent in Nanshan District, Shenzhen.

On the primary market, developers are still adopting a “price-to-volume” strategy. A marketing staff member from a company focused on East China told 21st Century Business Herald that while transaction volume for second-hand homes is increasing and prices are stable, signals for new home launches are still uncertain.

According to data provided by this marketing staff, most new home transaction prices in Shanghai and surrounding cities have declined this month, mainly due to developers lowering prices to increase sales and shifts in transaction structures.

“A project near us offered a competitor’s units at 85% of the original price, which is a few thousand yuan per square meter cheaper. They are selling quickly, but we haven’t had much success,” said a South China-based developer.

This divergence in sentiment is also reflected in the land market.

For example, in Shanghai, on March 13, the first batch of residential land for 2026 was auctioned, with three plots located in Jiading New Town, Xuhui Changqiao, and Qingpu Xihongqiao, totaling about 198,300 square meters of buildable land, with a total transaction value of approximately 6.809 billion yuan. Except for the Qingpu plot, which sold at a 6.6% premium, the other two were sold at base price.

This indicates that, despite current market enthusiasm, developers remain cautious in land acquisitions. Previously, during the China Merchants Shekou’s earnings conference, Vice President Wu Bin analyzed that the land market in 2026 is expected to continue its overall low-level operation with some localized hotspots.

Wu Bin stated that China Merchants Shekou’s investment principles for 2026 will continue to focus on key regions and cities, with sales-driven investments and careful selection. Based on market conditions and cash flow, and while meeting the “three red lines” regulatory constraints, each project must meet the “six good” investment standards to ensure effective resource allocation, with a focus on project turnover speed and profit realization.

From this perspective, the current “small spring” in the real estate market can help sustain a bottoming and stabilization process this year, but its continuation depends on multiple factors. Cao Jingjing, General Manager of the Index Research Department at CRIC, reminds that market stabilization will be a gradual process, and sustained recovery will rely on macro fundamentals such as residents’ income expectations and housing price expectations improving substantively.