邦达亚洲：加拿大经济数据疲软，美元/加元刷新8日高位

On March 16, U.S. Commerce Department data showed that durable goods orders in January were flat at 0% month-over-month, significantly below market expectations of 1.1%. After a 1.4% decline in December, the market had expected a mild rebound, but the zero-growth figure dashed those hopes. A key indicator of business capital expenditure—non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—also grew 0.0% month-over-month in January, well below the expected 0.5% and significantly slower than December’s revised 0.6%, reinforcing market caution about corporate investment prospects.

Looking at the breakdown, transportation equipment was the main drag this month. Orders for transportation equipment fell 0.9% (a decrease of $1 billion) to $113.3 billion, marking the third decline in the past four months. In contrast, core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining moderate growth but still below the expected 0.5% and below the revised 1.3% increase in December, indicating weakening momentum in other manufacturing sectors.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released data on Friday showing that the January core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.1% year-over-year, roughly in line with expectations and the highest since March 2024, with a 0.4% monthly increase, matching forecasts and prior values. The overall PCE price index increased 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations and the previous 2.9%, with a 0.3% monthly rise, slightly easing from 0.4%. Structurally, service sector prices remain the main driver of current inflation, while goods prices only saw slight declines in January, providing little offset to overall inflation. This pattern continues recent trends, reflecting persistent price stickiness in labor-intensive service industries, which are unlikely to cool quickly in the short term.

Today’s key data releases include the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for March, Canada’s February unadjusted CPI year-over-year, and U.S. industrial production for February.

Gold/USD

Last Friday, gold fluctuated downward, hitting an 8-day low, with spot prices around 5010. The main reason for the weakness was the U.S. dollar index breaking above 100.00, supported by multiple positive factors such as easing Fed rate cut expectations. However, safe-haven demand and weak U.S. economic data during the session limited further declines. Today, focus on resistance around 5050, with support near 4950.

USD/JPY

Last Friday, USD/JPY rose sharply, reaching a 20-month high, with spot prices around 159.50. The rally was mainly driven by the dollar’s strength supported by safe-haven flows and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts. Additionally, concerns about Japanese intervention in the currency market eased, providing further support. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan also helped. Today, watch resistance around 160.50 and support near 158.50.

USD/CAD

Last Friday, USD/CAD rose sharply, breaking above 1.3700 and reaching an 8-day high, with spot prices around 1.3710. The dollar’s strength, supported by multiple positive factors, pushed the pair to a 10-month high. Weak Canadian employment data during the session also provided some support. However, rising oil prices limited further gains. Today, focus on resistance around 1.3800 and support near 1.3600.