3.22 A New Energy Source in the Post-War Era, CATL May Become the Stock King!

1. Portfolio Summary
Letting go of everything. Suntech Power just a quick note.

2. Market Situation
After the Middle East conflict started, last week I analyzed the power struggle among major countries and shared my views on new energy. It seems the market is indeed moving as I predicted.

I misjudged the oil, gas, and chemical sectors; institutions are favoring the new energy logic of wind, solar, and storage. Currently, there are small-cycle trends emerging. Whether it can develop into a long-term trend remains to be seen next week.

Can CATL Become the New Market Leader?
The tech rally is led by giants like Yizhong Tian and Han Wang. A problem with the tech sector is that Nvidia hasn’t hit new highs, making it difficult to expect Yizhong Tian to continue rising sharply without leadership.

In the new energy sector, CATL has recently been surprisingly strong. The Hong Kong stock market is even trading at a 40% premium over A-shares. Hong Kong’s market cap is 3 trillion yuan, while A-shares are less than 1.9 trillion yuan. Domestic institutional investors are undervaluing CATL; isn’t the money they make real money?

If CATL continues to rise, it could surpass the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s market cap of 2.16 trillion yuan, becoming the new market leader, and the market sentiment will shift.
This year, the valuation logic for new energy will undergo a complete reversal.

The strongest sub-sector in new energy is energy storage.
Photovoltaic inverters fell back on Friday along with the broader market but were not significantly affected. They are more resilient than tech stocks, which have moved into niche segments for growth. Recently, the entire industry chain—battery cells, energy storage, cathodes, anodes, separators—has bottomed out and started to rise together. We should watch for continued momentum on Monday.

Even without war, household and industrial energy storage in Europe and the Middle East will see significant growth this year. Suntech Power is also showing clear signs of bottoming out and preparing for a rally. Some major players like EVE Energy, Hunan Yunneng, JINLONG Technology, and Penghui Energy are also experiencing increased trading volume and upward momentum.

Next week, we need to observe whether this is a small-cycle storage trend or a new institutional direction.

Long-term, the Strait of Hormuz is a key point; oil issues will definitely surface in April, causing global panic. Japan, South Korea, Europe, and Southeast Asia could see their industries halt production. The US isn’t short of oil; their domestic oil accounts for less than 20%, and Russian oil has been released by the US. Wall Street capital is waiting to buy assets in Japan, Korea, and Europe at low prices. We are taking over their industrial capacity, effectively solving overproduction by eliminating other countries’ capacity, which is also beneficial for inflation.

This wave will directly eliminate other countries’ oil vehicles, and exports of new energy will rapidly expand. Strategic oil reserves are not that large; after decades without war, small countries’ oil might have been stolen by rats long ago. It could be exposed in about half a month. Oil facilities in the Middle East that are bombed may be irreparable for years. If oil wells are destroyed, the damage is permanent.

The Shanghai Composite Index is showing signs of overselling. Over the weekend, many people said the bull market is over, but one strong day can change perceptions. There has never been a big bull market, only a structural one. Less watching, more action. The currently strong sectors are more likely to rise further once the index stabilizes.