Morgan Stanley: Bank of England May Cut Rates in April if Energy Disruptions Ease

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-22T12:05:06+00:00

Morgan Stanley expects that if global energy supply issues are resolved, the Bank of England may cut rates in April. Due to the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices, inflation concerns have intensified, and market expectations for a March rate cut have declined. The probability of a March rate cut currently stands at 15%, while April is at 36%.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-22 12:05:06

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Morgan Stanley’s Bruna Skarica stated in a report that if disruptions in global energy supply are resolved soon, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April. The Middle East conflict and rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns and led the market to lower expectations for a rate cut in March. According to LSEG data, the probability of the Bank of England cutting rates in March is currently priced at 15%, while the chance of a cut in April is 36%. Morgan Stanley previously forecasted rate cuts in March, July, and November, but has now adjusted to April, November, and February of the following year, assuming that energy supply disruptions do not persist long-term.

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