ETFs Face "Late Spring Frost"! Market-wide Contraction of 15 Billion Yuan in a Week, These "Safe Havens" Become Hemorrhaging Disaster Areas | ETF Scale Weekly Report

Everyday Economic Reporter | Peng Shuiping Everyday Economic Editor | Zhao Yun

From March 16 to March 20, A-shares experienced volatility and adjustments. Except for the ChiNext Index, which rose 1.26% for the week, all other major indices declined. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.19% for the week, the CSI A500 Index dropped 3.18%, and the STAR Market 50 Index declined 4.03%. Hong Kong stocks also surged and then fell back this week, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.12%.

This week, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded and then retreated, once again playing out the “stock and bond double kill” scenario. Against this backdrop, the ETF market has turned cold, with total scale dropping nearly 150 billion yuan in a week. The once-favored gold ETFs staged a “free fall,” shifting from being the “growth king” for several consecutive weeks to the “shrinkage king” this week, providing investors with a vivid lesson on risk.

Under the dual pressures of equity market volatility and commodity asset adjustments, investors’ risk appetite has significantly decreased. Funds have been withdrawing from high-volatility products and returning to cash ETFs for safety.

This week, the “stock and bond double kill” scene reoccurred, and commodity ETFs also experienced major weekly adjustments. In this context, aside from currency ETFs which grew by 3.059 billion yuan, all other major categories of ETFs shrank across the board. The total ETF scale in the market dropped nearly 150 billion yuan in a week, falling back to 5.1 trillion yuan. According to Wind data, as of March 21, eight new ETFs were launched this week, including seven stock ETFs and one cross-border ETF; bringing the total number of listed ETFs to 1,456.

In terms of specific scale changes, stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs shrank by 110.251 billion yuan and 14.22 billion yuan respectively, with continued outflows from equity products. Meanwhile, commodity ETFs, previously favored as safe-haven assets, shrank by 27.748 billion yuan this week, as many funds realized substantial earlier gains. Bond ETFs saw a slight decrease of 756 million yuan, while currency ETFs, the only major category with scale growth this week, increased by over 3 billion yuan, as funds moved out of high-volatility products for safety.

Since the beginning of the year, by March 21, the total ETF scale in the market has shrunk by over 926.5 billion yuan, with stock ETFs decreasing by 896.045 billion yuan, bond ETFs shrinking by 95.148 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs down by 17.955 billion yuan. On the other hand, despite deep adjustments this week, commodity ETFs increased by 81.719 billion yuan year-to-date, and currency ETFs grew slightly by 899 million yuan.

Regarding index-linked ETFs, the scale of major indices’ ETFs again shrank broadly this week, with only four of the top 20 indices showing growth.

Specifically, the four leading index ETFs that increased in scale this week are the SSE 50, China Internet 50, Low Volatility Dividend, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index, with only the SSE 50 ETF growing by more than 1 billion yuan.

Notably, the SGE Gold 9999 ETF linked to gold shrank by over 24 billion yuan this week, transitioning from being the “growth king” multiple times this year to the “shrinkage king,” providing investors with a vivid lesson: even safe-haven assets like gold are not risk-free, and their volatility can be significant.

Additionally, two other index ETFs shrank by over 10 billion yuan: the CSI A500 Index ETF (down 13.825 billion yuan) and the segmented chemical industry ETF (down 11.974 billion yuan). The segmented chemical ETF also experienced its first major weekly adjustment after continuous growth this year, largely in sync with gold products. Moreover, the CSI 300 Index ETF shrank by over 6 billion yuan this week.

Year-to-date, the CSI 300 Index ETF has shrunk by 619.071 billion yuan, with the latest scale at 566.486 billion yuan. The CSI 1000 and SSE 50 Index ETFs shrank by 135.664 billion yuan and 106.969 billion yuan respectively. Despite these large weekly declines, the SGE Gold 9999, segmented chemical, and Hang Seng Tech Index ETFs still grew by over 10 billion yuan each this year, at 66.138 billion yuan, 23.943 billion yuan, and 17.479 billion yuan respectively.

In terms of management institutions, among the top 20 managers, only two saw ETF scale growth this week, while seven institutions experienced outflows exceeding 10 billion yuan. In rankings, Bosera Fund, Hua’an Fund, and Penghua Fund each dropped one position due to significant shrinkage; Guolian Fund surpassed Bosera to rank 8th; Huabao Fund overtook Hua’an Fund to re-enter the top 10; and Huitianfu Fund replaced Penghua Fund at 15th place.

Regarding specific scale changes, the most notable is HFT Fund, which saw its ETF scale increase by 5.453 billion yuan against the trend, and Yinhua Fund, which grew slightly by 170 million yuan, performing relatively well.

On the other hand, China Asset Management’s ETF scale shrank by 22.856 billion yuan this week. Six other institutions experienced declines of over 10 billion yuan, including Guotai Fund, E Fund, Hua’an Fund, Penghua Fund, Southern Fund, and Bosera Fund, with relatively large scales in gold ETFs. GF Fund and Harvest Fund also saw reductions exceeding 7 billion yuan this week.

Year-to-date, China Asset Management, HFT Fund, Bosera Fund, and Hua’an Fund saw increases of over 10 billion yuan each, at 27.731 billion, 22.086 billion, 13.235 billion, and 13.023 billion yuan respectively. Conversely, Hua Xia Fund, E Fund, and China Pacific Fund experienced declines exceeding 200 billion yuan, at 253.642 billion, 231.114 billion, and 206.815 billion yuan; Southern Fund and Harvest Fund shrank by 128.622 billion and 113.496 billion yuan respectively.

In terms of flagship products, a scene of chaos reappeared this week, with only two products in the top 20 showing growth. Due to varying degrees of shrinkage, the rankings of top products changed significantly, with many gold ETFs dropping in rank, such as Bosera Gold ETF falling from 11th to 13th, and Guotai Gold ETF down one position; also, Harvest Fund’s Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF dropped from 7th to 9th.

Specifically, China Asset Management’s SSE 50 ETF and E Fund’s China Concept Internet ETF increased by 1.3 billion yuan and 201 million yuan respectively, making them the only two ETFs in the top 20 with positive growth this week.

Gold ETFs collectively shrank significantly this week, with Hua’an Gold ETF shrinking by 10.667 billion yuan, the only product with a decline exceeding 10 billion yuan. Other gold ETFs, including Guotai, Bosera, E Fund, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, shrank by over 3 billion yuan each.

Year-to-date, despite the overall decline this week, three gold ETFs have grown by over 10 billion yuan: Hua’an Gold ETF, Guotai Gold ETF, and Bosera Gold ETF, with increases of 23.37 billion, 13.518 billion, and 10.322 billion yuan respectively. E Fund Gold ETF increased by 8.702 billion yuan this year.

Meanwhile, five products have shrunk by over 1 trillion yuan this year: CSI 300 ETF (by 2,166.72 billion yuan), E Fund CSI 300 ETF (by 1,594.45 billion yuan), Huaxia ETF CSI 300 (by 1,367.43 billion yuan), Hua’an SSE 50 ETF (by 1,053.51 billion yuan), and Harvest CSI 300 ETF (by 1,021.83 billion yuan).