Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous

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The third Gulf war is now in its fourth week. Every day that Iranian strikes on ships keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural gas (lng) remains stranded. Every day, therefore, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at $112 a barrel, is 54% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 85%.

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