Citic Securities Ming Ming: The intertwining of inflation and economic slowdown has made the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts more cautious

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-22T10:18:31+00:00

CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming predicted in the 2026 macroeconomic outlook that China's economy will continue to recover, with actual GDP growth of approximately 4.9%. Fiscal policy will be proactive, monetary policy flexible, the global economy may experience rebalancing, and equity assets will perform relatively strongly.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-22 10:18:31

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On March 19, CITIC Securities held its 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum in Beijing. Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, stated in his speech “2026 Macroeconomic Outlook—Global Economic Rebalancing” that China’s economy is expected to continue recovering amid fluctuations in 2026. Ming Ming predicts that China’s real GDP growth rate in 2026 may stay around 4.9%, with the annual growth possibly showing a “V” shape, and nominal GDP likely to rebound quickly as inflation rises. On the macro policy front, fiscal policy will remain proactive, with the deficit ratio maintained at 4%. Special bonds are expected to be tilted toward project construction, and the scale of policy financial instruments will increase to 800 billion yuan, with quasi-fiscal efforts. Regarding monetary policy, there is room for “flexible and efficient use” of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with expectations of 1-2 interest rate cuts and 1 reserve ratio cut throughout the year. Structural tools will play a greater role.

Discussing the global landscape, Ming Ming pointed out that the global economic pattern is expected to enter a rebalancing phase. The U.S. economy faces structural issues, with inflation and economic slowdown intertwined, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious pace of rate cuts. In terms of major assets, equity assets are relatively attractive amid recovery and rising inflation; short-term government bond yields are likely to fluctuate around 1.8%; and the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate modestly in a weak dollar environment.

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