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What should I do?
Currently, the market trend is clearly entering an accelerated decline phase, and this trend has already formed with some inertia. According to common understanding, when the market is really bad, the best approach is to stay on the sidelines and wait for the rain to pass and the sky to clear. [Taogu Ba]
However, on Friday, the market still kept people’s moods unpredictable. In the morning, I regretted missing Liaoning Energy; but it immediately hit the limit down and fell back. I was relieved that I didn’t buy in at the limit, but it then recovered and closed higher; then it was about to hit the limit again and pulled back, so I gave up. In the afternoon, the market plunged sharply, but Liaoning Energy hit the limit down and then held firm; it seemed I understood the pattern and wanted to buy, but there was simply no opportunity. After the close, I felt very heavy-hearted—missing out on Liaoning Energy felt like missing the boat, completely ignoring how bad the overall environment is.
Those holding Liaoning Energy are also anxious, unsure what tomorrow will bring.
The future of the stock market is always unknown.
What should I do?
First, clarify the current situation: who is the main trend? Is it the energy cooperation sector? I don’t know, but it’s definitely related to energy, which is unavoidable.
Who is the leader? Without a doubt, Yunnan Energy is the leader. It’s been confined, lost its dominance, but still has expectations. As for Huaneng and the once-booming Liaoning Energy, they are both catching up. What’s catching up? Catch-up stocks also have their leaders. This reminds me of Shenjian Shares, which used to be a leader in aerospace development.
The problem is, who will fall first? Historical experience tells us that catch-up stocks tend to fall first, while the main leader temporarily does not. Sometimes, when catch-up stocks die, the main leader collapses the next day; sometimes, catch-up stocks weaken only slightly, and the main leader remains strong, with new catch-up stocks emerging. Among those that rise first, some disappear, some may rise again, but only if the main leader remains strong and continues to lead.
Isn’t that interesting? When the overall environment is bad, everyone says to stay on the sidelines for safety; yet, some funds still pursue speculation, and the more turbulent the market, the more expensive the fish. Yes, in peaceful times, some people get rich while others go into debt; in wartime, some still make money, while others lose everything or even their lives. Those who profit are lucky—they can make money anywhere.
So, don’t overthink it. What’s yours will be yours, in any situation; what’s not yours will never be yours, no matter what.
For example, if you stayed on the sidelines on Friday, it doesn’t affect losing money on Monday; because at the open, a surge might cause many to jump in and buy, only to see themselves deeply trapped later. Those heavily invested in Liaoning Energy on Friday also aren’t immune to losses—opening with a gap down, many sold in panic; yet, they hadn’t even celebrated escaping danger before seeing a rapid limit-up. Some who stayed on the sidelines on Friday ended up catching the rebound and feeling happy? Or still hesitant, laughing happily because they don’t know if they can smoothly get out from the floor on Tuesday!
That’s the stock market—uncertainty is everywhere. When you think a buy is confirmed, others might have already planned for a sharp drop the next day.
What should I do?
Either go all-in on the main leader, even if it yields less, because it can be bought at a low point and has potential for gains on the same day, and most importantly, it’s not afraid of big losses—that’s certainty.
Or aim for the first stock to hit the limit-up unexpectedly on the day, though this has no certainty.
Or stay on the sidelines and wait for the weather to clear.