Wen Chengkai: Recent International Gold Market Outlook - Post-Market Trend Analysis

On March 17, recent discussions about the “gold top” have been overwhelming, and the scene feels familiar. Last year, when gold prices surged to $3,500, there was also widespread bearish sentiment. After four months of fluctuation, gold soared to $5,000. Now, history is repeating itself, but this time the reasons for bearishness seem even more justified. However, judging whether gold has peaked is actually simple: when you feel that the economy is thriving, making money is easy, the world is at peace, the Fed is raising interest rates, and global prosperity is ongoing, then gold may truly have reached its top. But the reality is quite the opposite!

The main reason for recent gold price declines is the weakening of expectations for Fed rate cuts and rising inflation driven by oil prices. But the deeper logic is that the conflict in the Middle East, triggered by the U.S., continues to escalate, and the global geopolitical situation keeps deteriorating. The U.S.'s real goal in targeting Iran is to cut off the energy lifeline of the East—this is essentially an escalation of great power confrontation. Don’t forget, last year’s China-U.S. trade negotiations merely postponed the issues for a year and did not truly resolve them. Geopolitical crises, trade frictions, economic downturns, currency devaluations, and central bank gold purchases—all these factors that support gold remain unchanged!

The recent volatility in gold prices has caused many investors to panic, but we need to see clearly: this is merely normal fluctuation caused by soaring oil prices, rising inflation, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. After the base of gold prices increases, seemingly sharp fluctuations are still within a reasonable range. Investors who panic over short-term volatility are exposing their speculative mindset. Those who focus on weekly and monthly charts will never reap the benefits of a yearly bull market.

The true test of a bull market is mindset, not the market itself. History always repeats itself: despair during declines, madness during rises—this is the normal state of markets. Looking ahead to 2026, the logic of the gold and silver markets is undergoing profound changes. The end of a bull market is determined by objective conditions, not market sentiment. The current world order is accelerating toward multipolarity, with U.S. hegemony weakening continuously. Under the wave of de-dollarization, central banks around the world are voting with their actions. Emerging economies like China and India are increasing their gold holdings, using it as a foundation for currency and national credit.

Particularly noteworthy is that the trend of central bank gold purchases not only shows no signs of slowing down but is actually accelerating. In the context of the reconfiguration of the global landscape, it is premature to declare the end of the gold bull market. However, silver warrants a different discussion, as its true value differs significantly from gold. In this era full of uncertainties, gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset is becoming even more prominent.

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