Zhongjin Wealth Futures: Strait of Hormuz Closure Lifts Crude Oil Prices

At the beginning of the new year, the international crude oil market has entered a critical crossroads, with macroeconomic downward pressure, the outbreak of Middle East conflicts, and fluctuating interest rate cut expectations. As a risk-sensitive asset, crude oil’s price behavior in such a complex environment reflects uncertainty or increased volatility. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to force majeure, and the situation is evolving toward a fourth oil crisis. According to full-year 2025 statistics, the total crude oil and refined product exports from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz amount to 18.672 million barrels per day, accounting for 27.1% of global exports; among them, crude oil and condensate exports total 15.007 million barrels per day, representing 34.5% of global exports. In terms of specific destinations, Asian markets—China, India, Japan, and South Korea—now account for nearly 70%, with China alone making up 30.6%. Unlike the previous Red Sea crisis, where ships could reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for Persian Gulf oil exports. It is reported that some shipping insurers have canceled war risk policies, and increased insurance premiums will significantly raise the onshore prices represented by SC crude oil futures. (CICC Wealth Futures)