Date: March 22, 2026

Short-Term Impact

1)
· Event: U.S. President Trump issues ultimatum demanding complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or threatens to bomb Iran's nuclear and energy facilities.
· Impact: Conflict escalation enters "countdown game" → oil prices and gold experience significant short-term volatility, market risk appetite declines.
· Focus: Whether military strikes or diplomatic resolution emerges within the 48-hour window.

2)
· Event: Iran's Natanz nuclear facility attacked again within 24 hours, explosions impact multiple locations.
· Impact: Conflict touches nuclear facilities → geopolitical risk level escalates, safe-haven assets (gold/crude oil) gain premium.
· Focus: Whether nuclear leaks or further nuclear facility strikes occur.

3)
· Event: Iran launches strikes on distant targets, attacking U.S.-UK joint base in Indian Ocean (approximately 3800km away).
· Impact: Strike radius expands → conflict spillover reaches global military nodes, market enters "globalized risk" pricing.
· Focus: Whether expansion extends to more overseas bases or shipping nodes.

4)
· Event: Southern Israeli cities Dimona and Arad attacked by missiles, dozens injured.
· Impact: Conflict sustains high intensity → global risk assets under pressure, military and safe-haven assets benefit.
· Focus: Whether missile attack frequency further increases.

5)
· Event: U.S. begins troop reinforcements to Middle East, clearly prioritizing strategic focus on Strait of Hormuz control.
· Impact: Military involvement deepens → market begins pricing in "full-scale conflict" scenarios.
· Focus: Whether direct straits control or military takeover operations emerge.

6)
· Event: U.S. internal assessment indicates Strait of Hormuz may close for up to 6 months.
· Impact: Short-term shock transforms into medium-term supply crisis → oil price midpoint rises, inflation expectations strengthen.
· Focus: Actual shipping volume and blockade enforcement intensity.

Long-Term Impact

7)
· Event: Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict enters "cross-regional strike phase," battle lines expand from Middle East to Indian Ocean.
· Impact: Conflict spillover risk rises → long-term uncertainty in global trade and energy transport increases.
· Focus: Whether impact extends to more critical shipping lanes (e.g., Red Sea, Strait of Malacca).

8)
· Event: U.S. strategic focus shifts to "controlling critical energy channels," emphasizing joint defense of straits by consuming nations.
· Impact: Global energy transport enters militarized era → shipping and energy cost structures rise long-term.
· Focus: Whether long-term international escort or toll mechanisms form.

9)
· Event: Nuclear facilities face sustained attacks, conflict gradually touches nuclear capabilities and strategic red lines.
· Impact: Nuclear risk premium enters asset pricing system → gold and safe-haven assets receive long-term support.
· Focus: Whether nuclear policy or nuclear test-related changes emerge.

10)
· Event: Conflict enters third week with continued escalation, no effective ceasefire or negotiation mechanism emerges.
· Impact: Market begins pricing in "prolonged war" scenarios → global growth expectations revised downward, resource assets outperform.
· Focus: Whether substantive ceasefire negotiations or third-party mediation emerges.