Attracting Attention! "Super Strong El Niño Will Lead to Hottest Year"? Expert Response Here!

Recently

“2023 and 2024 could become the hottest years in history”

“Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon,” and other related topics

have sparked widespread public attention.

Several media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high temperatures this summer and next.

What is the El Niño phenomenon?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate variability characterized by coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillations occurring in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a cycle of 3–7 years.

It is generally represented by the duration and intensity of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., deviations from the climate average). If the 3-month rolling average SST remains above 0.5°C for five months, it is considered a warm phase, called El Niño; if it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it is a cold phase, called La Niña; if it fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from multiple climate models domestically and internationally, the National Climate Center analyzes that the La Niña phase is nearing its end and will soon transition into a neutral state. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is expected to continue rising, and by late spring, it may enter an El Niño phase.

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explained that historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño phase within the same year. Different climate models worldwide predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with the earliest possible in April and the latest in late summer or early fall. There is significant divergence among models regarding the timing of El Niño development.

Chen Lijuan, chief expert at the Climate Prediction Office, pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the extent of warming and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength and type of El Niño and regional climate responses. It is still too early to definitively say that an ultra-strong El Niño will cause the hottest year.

Overall, there is a higher likelihood of an El Niño phase in the central-eastern tropical Pacific in the second half of this year, but precise timing and overall strength remain uncertain. Currently, multiple international climate prediction models show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

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