Middle East conflict spills into the energy sector! Oil and gas stocks defy the trend and strengthen, with many stocks expected to double their performance this year. ( List )

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Source: Eastmoney Research Center

Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, international oil prices rose again today, with Brent crude reaching $112.85 per barrel and U.S. crude approaching the $100 mark. In the domestic futures market, energy and chemical commodities also surged across the board.

In the A-share market, resource sectors such as oil, natural gas, and coal are actively rebounding against the trend. Shaanxi Black Cat, Guang’an Aizhong, Guo New Energy, and Trespass hit the daily limit, while KAITIAN Gas rose over 15%, with multiple stocks like Keli Co., Jinhong Gas, Tongyuan Petroleum, and Tianhao Energy also climbing.

Iran retaliates with strikes on U.S.-related energy facilities

According to CCTV News, early on the 19th local time, Iran launched the 63rd round of “Real Commitment-4” operations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an emergency statement, announcing a large-scale missile attack on regional oil and energy facilities related to the U.S. Previously, Israel attacked Iran’s largest natural gas facility, which processes 40% of Iran’s natural gas.

Iran claims that oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have become “legitimate targets.” The statement emphasized that Iran did not want to escalate the war into the energy sector or affect neighboring economies, but enemy provocations have led the conflict into a “new phase.”

The statement also warned that if attacks continue, Iran will expand its strikes to all energy infrastructure of U.S. and Israeli allies until they are “completely destroyed.”

Additionally, on the evening of March 18 local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a statement mourning the death of Iran’s top security official Larijani and his son. He stressed that such terrorist actions will only “strengthen the will of the Islamic nation,” and vowed that “blood debts will be avenged soon.”

Gulf countries’ oil exports plummet last week

According to data from Belgium’s Kpler, during the week ending March 15, oil exports from eight major Gulf oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—averaged 9.71 million barrels per day. This is a sharp drop from an average of 25.13 million barrels per day in February, a decrease of about 61%.

Kpler data shows that before the outbreak of war, these eight Gulf countries accounted for 36% of global seaborne oil exports.

According to Xinhua News Agency citing U.S. media, U.S. officials said that President Trump hopes Israel will cease airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities.

The report states that Trump was briefed on Israel’s attack on the South Pars gas field in Iran on the 18th and expressed support, viewing it as a signal to the Iranian government regarding the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials said Trump believes Iran has received this message, and now opposes further airstrikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Institutional outlook on energy sector opportunities amid escalating conflict

The Strait of Hormuz, as a vital global shipping route, handles over 30% of the world’s seaborne oil and over 20% of liquefied natural gas transportation. It is also a key passage for Middle Eastern chemical exports to Asia.

Analysts point out that ongoing shipping disruptions, coupled with attacks on Persian Gulf oil and gas production, have shifted market focus from supply and demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. The global energy supply is entering a phase of structural risk, with geopolitical premiums likely to rise further.

According to a report by China Post Securities, continued geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant decline in transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and gas prices to surge. Future attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and sustainability, with opportunities in the energy sector.

Huatai Futures states that the main contradiction in the current market remains the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remains tense, with the Persian Gulf region at high risk, and the number of oil tankers passing through the strait remains very low. Due to the large share of LPG supply from the U.S., recent increased shipments can somewhat offset Middle Eastern shortages. However, if the blockade persists, there is still a risk of further market tightening.

According to Huayuan Securities, geopolitical conflicts are driving up oil and gas prices. Domestic energy supply security is increasingly important, and rising sea and gas prices, along with import costs, can strongly support domestic gas prices, which may see further increases.

Furthermore, the institution pointed out that although domestic coal prices have not yet fully risen due to seasonal demand and power plant procurement strategies, the global energy price increase provides potential support through multiple channels.

Five oil and gas stocks are expected to double in performance

According to Eastmoney’s concept sector data, over 150 stocks in the A-share market are related to oil and gas resources. Leading companies such as the “Three Big Oil” companies, COSCO Shipping, and Jereh Group have a combined market value exceeding 7 trillion yuan.

Since the beginning of the year, five stocks in the oil and gas sector have doubled, with Tongyuan Petroleum leading a 2.6-fold increase. Keli Co., Qian Neng Hengxin, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, and GCL Energy have all gained between 100% and 170%. China Merchants Shipping, Shandong Molong, and Shouhua Gas have also increased by over 60%.

Since March, affected by Middle East tensions, oil and gas stocks have been active again. GCL Energy and Keli Co. have each risen over 45% this month. Additionally, 10 stocks including Tongyuan Petroleum, Xintian Green Energy, Luhua Technology (rights protection), Trespass, and KAITIAN Gas have gained over 20% cumulatively.

From a capital perspective, Eastmoney’s Choice data shows that this month, as many as 78 oil and gas stocks received net financing inflows. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China Merchants Shipping attracted 835 million and 635 million yuan respectively. China National Petroleum and GCL Energy saw leveraged funds increase by over 400 million yuan. Eight stocks, including Zhongman Petroleum, CNOOC, Yongtai Energy, and Luhua Technology, had net financing inflows between 100 million and 300 million yuan.

Regarding future growth potential, based on forecasts from two or more institutions, 14 oil and gas stocks are expected to see net profit growth of over 30% by 2026. Notably, Longstone Heavy Equipment is predicted to see a 218.52% year-on-year increase in net profit. Donghua Energy and Shouhua Gas are both expected to nearly double their profits, while Yongtai Energy and Bomaike also have prospects for performance doubling.