March 20, 2026 Review: The Path to Breaking Even for Retail Investors

Market Trend Analysis:
The market continued to add 175.5 billion, with a total transaction volume of 2.3028 trillion. There were 39 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 23 hitting the limit down. The loss effect persists, with more limit-down stocks than yesterday. A significant retreat occurred with 13 stocks experiencing sharp declines. Yesterday’s market prediction was correct; there is still a risk of a pullback, with a tentative support at 3,900. There may be a rebound, but the overall downtrend remains unchanged. The short-term trend of the market has deteriorated; the MACD daily and weekly charts show divergence at the top. The market cannot recover from the two-month bottoming and oscillation phase. High-tech stocks have likely completed their upward trend. Today’s decline only shook out some panic selling. The midday rally lured many bottom-fishers, so caution is advised on Monday to avoid further heavy selling. There may be stabilization news over the weekend. As long as there is a gap-up at the open on Monday, do not chase. The only suitable entry points are after a gap-up with a breakout on high volume, mainly for arbitrage. Any intraday rise should be sold quickly. The B-wave rebound here is only for arbitrage expectations.

Sentiment:
The limit-up streak reached 5 consecutive boards. Shenhua Development and China Power Liaoning both advanced to the third board. Shenhua Development is in the third-tier group, so be cautious. Expect a large decline on Monday. China Power Liaoning held at 5 boards today but repeatedly hit the limit down, reducing expectations. Coupled with yesterday’s failed upgrade of Sanfangxiang, which hit the limit down today, the upgrade difficulty for China Power Liaoning on Monday is high. If China Power New Energy hits the limit again on Monday, it will trigger abnormal movements. The power sector faces considerable pressure on Monday, so I sold all power stocks today. In this environment, being cautious is not wrong; keep the funds for the brave to earn.

Themes:
Power Sector
Limit-up streak: China Power Liaoning, China Power Energy
Core: Yunnan Energy Investment
Mid-tier: Jinkai New Energy
Everyone is praising the resilience of the power sector as the main theme. Be extra cautious now. If China Power New Energy moves abnormally on Monday and China Power Liaoning faces a test, the risk outweighs the reward. Yunnan Energy posted positive news after hours, which is mainly for retail investors. Funds have already anticipated this. If Yunnan Energy gaps up on Monday on the news, combined with high opens for China Power, imagine the scenario—do not chase.

Chemicals
Core: Jinniu Chemical, Chitianhua, Jinchengda
The impact of US-India news on the market is diminishing; funds are becoming desensitized and no longer paying attention. The market perception is insufficient, and profits are hard to come by.

Computing Power
Core: Meili Yun
The theme is indeed associated. The optimistic Auraide did not meet expectations in today’s bidding, so there was no focus. The computing power sector acts as a protector for the power sector. After Friday’s decline, Monday’s power sector is in jeopardy.

Tomorrow’s Trading Plan and Response Strategy:
Resconda at 25%—the logic of this stock remains solid. If the market moves as I expect on Monday, I will likely hide inside for short-term trading.

Today’s Operations:
Yunnan Energy Investment sold at a 1% profit after opening. The leader always makes money; each time I enter, I profit. This trade earned 8%. After hours, positive news came out; high-level positive news is actually a negative.
Jinkai New Energy rose 8 points and was sold.
Resconda: Early trading was strong; I quickly sold 25%, but was caught in a big sell-off. I suffered a large decline. At 11:00, Mingpu Optical Magnetic hit the limit down. Despite the large buy orders pushing Resconda earlier, the funds inside became timid. In the morning, Resconda’s unexpected large orders were actually pushing Mingpu in the bidding. After hours, I saw the龙虎榜 (top traders list) and realized I was in a quantitative fund. The quantitative strategy directly aligned with the position. Expectation for Monday: hold the rebound, add more if it hits the limit down, since going out is also a form of being beaten.

Others:
Currently, chasing highs is a sure way to lose. Only buy the core stocks at the end of the session on dips, and only buy the strongest one. If the next day’s rise is below expectations, cut losses immediately. There’s no room for attachment.

The current market tests one’s patience and is the best opportunity to improve oneself. Control your emotions, think carefully about the market, and ask yourself: in the current environment, if I buy today, will someone else buy tomorrow?

Limit-up team expectations:
Shenhua Development A: Third-tier group, whoever plays will be shouting.
China Power Liaoning: Expect to cross 6 limit-ups tomorrow; there is a chance to upgrade. The only buy point is today; tomorrow can only serve as a reference point unless you are bold enough to gamble on a breakout.