IDC: If Middle East Conflict Lasts Longer, Impact on Global IT Spending in 2026 Will Be More Significant

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-03-20T22:04:31+00:00

On March 11, an IDC report indicated that escalating Middle East conflicts bring new economic and political challenges to the global technology environment. In the short term, IT spending growth is expected to remain stable, but prolonged conflict will significantly impact the market. Global IT spending is projected to grow 9% in 2026. If conflicts persist longer, there will be greater negative impacts on enterprise investment confidence and expenditure.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-03-20 22:04:31

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On March 11, IDC (International Data Corporation) research indicated that escalating conflicts in the Middle East introduce new macroeconomic and geopolitical variables to the already fragile global technology environment.

In a downside scenario where the conflict lasts up to three months, the impact on IT spending will be measurable and relatively mild. Even amid a weakening macroeconomic environment, service providers may still maintain their active investment plans for deploying AI infrastructure worldwide. Short-term conflicts will have limited effects on cloud services and enterprise software demand, but a return of inflationary pressures could negatively affect device upgrades and some discretionary spending.

Under this downside scenario, global IT spending is expected to grow about 9% by 2026, compared to a baseline forecast of 10%. If the conflict persists longer, the impact on IT spending will be more significant, but current predictions are difficult.

In 2025, IT spending in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) is projected at $155 billion, accounting for 4% of the global market, with a forecasted growth of 5% in 2026. This growth rate is lower than the global average, mainly due to memory price pressures affecting the device market, and terminal devices constitute a higher proportion of IT spending in the region.

In a downside scenario where the conflict is resolved within three months, IT spending growth in the MEA region will decline to the 3%–4% range this year, negatively impacting business and investor confidence in the short term. The effects will vary significantly across countries, reflecting oil supply dynamics and other factors. Longer-lasting conflicts would have a greater impact.

IDC states that, however, we still maintain our baseline forecast, assuming the conflict lasts for a shorter period, with limited disruption to fundamental IT needs including AI infrastructure deployment, cloud migration, and ongoing digital transformation projects. We will continue to monitor the situation and update accordingly.

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