$14 Generic Wegovy Coming to India as Novo Nordisk (NVO) Patent Expires

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Indian drugmakers are preparing to launch generic versions of Novo Nordisk’s NVO -1.24% ▼ semaglutide treatments once the patent expires on Friday. In fact, about 42 manufacturers could release more than 50 different versions this year, which is likely to trigger a price war in a country with one of the largest overweight populations in the world. For instance, Natco Pharma plans to launch a semaglutide injection starting at around 1,290 rupees, or $14 per month, with a pen version priced at around 4,500 rupees.

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In comparison, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pen costs about 10,480 rupees, or $113, in India and roughly $199 in the U.S. under a self-pay model. Other companies are expected to price their drugs between 3,000 and 5,000 rupees per month. While Canada also lost patent protection earlier this year, no generics have been approved there yet, which means India will be the first major market to see widespread competition. At the same time, companies are competing not only on price but also on how the drugs are delivered and marketed.

More specifically, drugmakers are testing different formats, such as pre-filled syringes, single-use pens, vials, and reusable injectors, in order to give patients more options and build brand loyalty. Meanwhile, companies are targeting smaller cities where access has been limited, as demand continues to grow due to rising obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Because of this, analysts see India as a key test case, with the market potentially growing from $500 million to $1 billion if pricing and adoption improve.

Is NVO Stock a Good Buy?

Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on NVO stock based on one Buy, six Holds, and zero Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average NVO price target of $42.80 per share implies 16.4% upside potential.

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