Hormuz Strait Continues to Stall, Middle East Oil Exports Plunge 61%-71%

The Iran-U.S. conflict has led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transportation artery, which remains obstructed. This has pushed crude oil exports from the Middle East to their lowest levels in history. This unprecedented supply shock is reshaping the global energy market landscape.

According to data from ship tracking agency Kpler and calculations by Reuters, last week, the combined daily exports of crude oil, condensates, and refined products from eight countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates—fell to 9.71 million barrels, a sharp 61% drop from the 25.13 million barrels per day in February. Another tracking agency, Vortexa, reported an even steeper decline, with exports dropping to 7.5 million barrels per day last week, a 71% decrease from the 26.1 million barrels per day in February.

This represents the largest oil supply disruption in history. Under normal conditions, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. Its substantial closure has forced exporters to cancel shipments and shut down oil fields, causing crude prices to surge to their highest levels in four years, with some fuel prices reaching historic highs.

Before the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, these eight countries accounted for 36% of global maritime oil exports, with an average daily export volume of 70.43 million barrels. As storage facilities in oil-producing countries approach saturation and shipping flow through Hormuz remains at a minimal fraction of normal levels, the overall production cuts in the Middle East continue to expand.

Both major agencies’ data point to a steep decline

Data from both Kpler and Vortexa indicate a consistent trend: Middle Eastern oil exports are experiencing a historic plunge. Kpler reports that last week, the average export volume from these eight countries was 9.71 million barrels per day, a 61% decrease from February. Vortexa’s data shows a mere 7.5 million barrels per day, a 71% drop.

The significance of this impact lies in its scale: these eight countries contributed 36% of global maritime oil exports before the conflict. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly cuts off this vital supply chain, becoming the core reason for the current pressure on the global energy markets.

The extent of production cuts varies significantly among major oil-producing countries due to differences in storage and transportation conditions. Reuters reported on Monday that the UAE, which was producing about 3.4 million barrels per day before the conflict, has now cut more than half. Iraq has seen the most pronounced reduction, with output down 70% from pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has also reduced production by about 20%.

Analysts estimate that the overall crude oil production in the Middle East has currently decreased by 7 to 10 million barrels per day. As storage capacities approach their limits and export channels remain blocked, the pressure to further cut production persists.

Tank saturation and blocked channels intensify supply disruption

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a double blow to Middle Eastern oil exports, affecting both logistics and production. Exporters are forced to cancel shipments due to inability to dispatch cargo, and as onshore storage facilities become saturated, oil-producing countries have no choice but to further reduce upstream output. Currently, vessel flow through Hormuz remains only a tiny fraction of normal levels.

With multiple constraints on supply, crude prices have risen to their highest in four years, and prices for some fuel products have also hit historic highs, exerting ongoing pressure on global energy security and inflation expectations.