Oil prices surge without yet meeting conditions for deep pullback, reverse repo contraction signals RRR cut coming, Vietnam establishes two-stage strategic goals---0317 Macro Dehydration

An oil shock that triggers a deep stock market correction usually requires one of three conditions: sustained soaring oil prices, a hawkish shift by central banks, or macroeconomic deterioration. The current situation has not fully met these criteria, but if conflict expectations become prolonged, a repeat of the 2022 stock and bond sell-off could occur.

Recent signals from financial policy include the Shanghai Stock Exchange expanding diverse equity financing channels. The People’s Bank of China held a technology work conference to promote in-depth AI applications. The rare continuation of 3-month reverse repurchase agreements with reduced volume is interpreted as the central bank making room for reserve requirement ratio cuts, with 1 to 2 more cuts expected this year.

Vietnam has set a goal to become a middle-high income country by 2030 and a high-income developed country by 2045. In 2025, Vietnam’s economy is expected to perform strongly, with GDP growth reaching 8.02% and an accelerating consumer market. In the capital markets, despite current adjustments, there is potential to attract foreign investors to re-enter.