【AI + Storage】Samsung Internal Warning: Memory Shortage to End in 2028, Supply Reversal — Cautious Capacity Expansion to Guard Against Oversupply Risk

According to Korean media reports, Samsung Electronics’ Semiconductor Business Division (DS) predicts that due to aggressive expansion by competitors Micron (MU), emerging players Japan Kioxia, and China Yangtze Memory, as well as the further expansion of the Yongin Semiconductor Mega Cluster promoted by the Korean government, the supply shortage of memory semiconductors may be alleviated around 2028. Samsung is cautiously adjusting its investment pace accordingly to avoid repeating past mistakes of overexpansion that led to vulnerabilities.

Industry insiders quoted by Korean media reveal that Samsung Electronics’ Semiconductor Business Division management expects the global memory semiconductor market to potentially turn around starting in 2028. The division is exploring ways to improve operational efficiency, reduce overinvestment risks, and maximize profitability.

Analysts also point out that since the rise of artificial intelligence, memory demand has become unstable, with shorter supply cycles, making it difficult to accurately estimate production scale and required investments. Samsung may need to take measures to address unpredictable demand declines.

The Yongin Semiconductor Mega Cluster, actively promoted by the Korean government and led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, has a total investment of nearly 1 quadrillion Korean won and aims to become the core manufacturing hub of South Korea’s semiconductor industry.

Industry expectations are that after the completion of the first phase of the Yongin cluster, more factories will be built and mass production will commence, with the second phase of investment in 2028 further expanding production capacity.

A key reason for Samsung’s cautious outlook on the future market is that competitors and emerging players are expanding capacity plans, with new supply expected to flood the market around 2028. Micron is expanding DRAM production lines in Taiwan, Singapore, and the US, and has placed large equipment orders since last year to increase HBM output.

Considering that building a semiconductor production line typically takes about two years, this means that starting from 2028, the capacities of all memory companies—including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron—will significantly increase.