Snow weighs down the branches low! The reversal will happen tomorrow! (2026.3.17)

This is just my personal trading record, analyzing daily market movements. [Taoguba]
Welcome brothers to exchange more ideas.

Is the supply of storage chips about to explode?
Samsung’s largest strike in history is imminent.① South Korea’s Samsung Electronics faces the threat of its biggest strike ever, caused by employee dissatisfaction with pay and benefits, widening the pay gap with competitor SK Hynix; ② The strike may occur in May, affecting about half of Samsung’s Seoul semiconductor factory capacity, potentially causing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. This is a typical industry trend of “looking up at the macro market while guarding against risks at your feet.” The direct impact of the strike is a ticking time bomb. Samsung’s strike threat is real, not a small disturbance, with an unprecedented scale involving 90,000 union members (72% of Korea headquarters staff), planning an 18-day strike in May. If it happens, it will be the largest strike in Samsung Electronics’ history. Industry insiders warn that a shutdown could cause hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

Amid the AI frenzy, a “seller’s market”
This bomb is particularly noteworthy because it hits at the peak of the storage chip industry’s hottest period—extreme shortages driven by AI. By 2026, storage chips will enter a “super boom cycle,” with SK Hynix even stating, “No customer demand can be fully met this year.” The capacity gap for HBM (high bandwidth memory) is expected to reach 50-60%. Prices are soaring; Samsung and SK Hynix have announced price increases for Q2, with some DDR5 chip prices rising by as much as 40%, and even Apple’s procurement prices doubling, resulting in thick profit margins. Storage chips have become the top growth driver in semiconductors. Under this market condition, halting production is like watching the printing press being taken away by others. Competitors are winning big. If Samsung really reduces production, market share won’t disappear but will shift. The biggest beneficiaries will be SK Hynix and Micron, which will instantly fill the order gaps left by Samsung and become the biggest winners. Watch for subsequent chain reactions. May is a critical point for the strike to be implemented. If it materializes, not only will Samsung’s stock face pressure, but costs and supply of end products like phones, computers, and cars equipped with related chips could also be affected.

Only March 5, 6, and 10 were slightly better days. Losing money is nothing to feel guilty about; that’s just how the market is.

Market Analysis:
The major indices have been falling for several days, breaking below the 60-day moving average today— a technical stop-loss point and a bull-bear dividing line. Tomorrow’s opening is likely to see continued downward momentum, with support around the 4000-point mark.
However, my subjective view is that if the market continues to decline in the early trading hours, then be bold—add to your positions. Think about this: even if the market starts a downtrend, it will first rebound before falling further. The current panic point has basically bottomed out. Today, the market opened high, then declined sharply, with a rebound, but no significant volume—volume actually shrank further. Continuing to sell off may not be very meaningful now. I have already increased my holdings to six layers today; if there’s an opportunity tomorrow, I will add more. And if it rebounds, it won’t end in just one day—be prepared to follow the trend.

Today, 39 stocks hit the daily limit, 17 stocks hit the limit but then fell back, with a 70% limit-up rate. Sanhexiang hit four consecutive limit-ups; Farsight 17 days with 10 limit-ups; Chitianhua 8 days with 5 limit-ups; Yaxiang Integration, Jingtou Development, Xihua Technology each 3 consecutive limit-ups; Shunnao Co., Ltd. 10 days with 6 limit-ups; Zhuolang Intelligent 10 days with 5 limit-ups; Luxin Technology 4 days with 3 limit-ups; Zhongfu Shenying 20cm 4 days with 2 limit-ups. The market was volatile all day, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down over 1%, and the ChiNext Index down over 2%. Trading volume shrank, with total turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen only 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 117.5 billion from the previous day. The market rotation was weak, with over 4,500 stocks declining. In terms of sectors, real estate, insurance, securities, and liquor led gains; hardware, super-hard materials, sports, and MLED concepts led declines. At close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.85%, Shenzhen Component down 1.87%, and ChiNext down 2.29%.

Consecutive limit-up upgrades:

The direction of consecutive limit-ups has strengthened, with a 100% upgrade rate at high levels. I will review the 2-to-3 limit-up pattern tomorrow.

Breakdown of limit-up stocks:

Strong sectors: Chemicals
Market high flyers: None

Market strong stocks: Jinniu Chemicals / Taiji Shares / Helen Technology (penny stock, buy on red days) / Demingli

(Some people don’t understand what I mean by strong stocks; these are observation targets. If good opportunities arise during trading, you can participate. Focus on strong stocks to improve your judgment.)
Some don’t know how to find buy points in the stock pool. I usually say that low buy-in is below 3%. If you don’t catch that, then waiting for breakout buys is more certain. Mid-trade entries require observing volume and support. Interested readers can check my post on support strength for more details.
If you don’t catch a buy point during trading and don’t hit a limit-up, and fear being trapped, then as long as the trend line isn’t broken at the end of the day, it’s still a buy point (buying at the end of the day is to avoid intra-day declines and aim for next-day premiums).
Regarding T+0 trading, only do T+0 during an uptrend. If the previous day was a green day, you can T+0 the next day; if it was a red day, don’t T+0.

Summary:

The market opened high and fell today, with severe volume contraction. Yesterday’s rotation in tech sectors like CPO/PCB was a trap with high opening and then decline. Our storage chip sector, however, showed resilience, with strong support throughout the day. Wait for a signal of a market rebound, and I increased my positions accordingly today.

Yesterday, I mentioned Jinniu Chemicals hit the limit down but still looked for opportunities. The bidding was quickly snatched up, then dropped to -6, showing strong support—possible to participate. If I hadn’t sold yesterday and had a bottom position, I would have gone in, but the price wasn’t right, so I just watched.

Other sectors are less meaningful now. Big finance moved; at this position, active movement isn’t quant-driven or retail-driven—who is it? Who holds the chips in big finance? It’s a shakeout! All the tricks have been used up. Watch for a rebound tomorrow! A strong rebound! Explosive profit potential!

This is my personal record; do not base your actions solely on it. It does not constitute any buy or sell advice or opinion.
Reminder: This record is only for personal trading improvement, not your trading basis!
Disclaimer:
Trading is difficult and all past results. Do not follow blindly; trading involves risks! I only record my own trades. If you like it, please like, follow, and comment.

Thanks to friends for tipping: @Yipian Anding, @Xiaoman Mama, @Sen Yu, @Li Ping’an De Doudou, @Xiang Chuang, @Puff Pudding, @Eating Grass White Cow, @Bo Con Yun Chou, @Mei Tian Zheng Shu, @Mosquito Fly, @80-Year-Old Welfare Stock Trader, @Tu An An Yi, @An Dong, @Red Prosperity Tree, @Fan Fan Zhong, @Missing Sea, @Zhu Ji Yi Ren Deng Making Dreams, @Niu Niu Yi Er San, @Jian Zhen Yang Guang, @Shan Chuan Bu Nian, @Cabbage Tofu Tomato, @Hao Hao Fa, @Uncle Eleven, @Shuying Qing Han, @1 Billion Dream Girl, @Jiu Cai 123, @Lemon Yang Le Duo, @A22A, @Jun Zi Hao Qiu, @80-Year-Old Welfare Stock Trader, @Static Electricity, @Simple Happiness Yingzi, @Forward and Back Logistics, @Chen Yuan 88888888, @Wei Wei Xi Dao Lai, @Yu198312, @She Hui Lin Jie 76, @Liu Qian Mu, @ClimbLife, @Fan Fan Zhong, @Stock Market Naked Swim Ba Bao.

Thanks to friends who helped me feature top posts and cheer me on:

Short-term essence:
The market’s core is speculation—always speculation. The core that never changes, just the changing forms of the situation. Obsessing over appearances, dying from the essence. Speculation has always been there, never gone away. Many just don’t see it.

The essence of stocks: stocks are a game of chip exchange. The so-called logic and fundamentals are just tools to deceive more people into taking over chips. Our only way to see through the essence is to ensure that during the transfer, more people are willing to take the story. Stocks are about storytelling, then selling to those who believe the story. Small funds tell small stories; big funds tell big stories. Some cycles are short, some long. The essence is the same—repeating forever, unchanged.

The core of short-term trading: the liquidity premium brought by popularity, that’s all.

Practical tips:

How to sell stocks with a higher chance of not flying away:

How to observe intra-day support in stocks:

My ultra-short trading system:

How to select stocks:

How to find trending bull stocks:

How to read the market:

How to set stop-loss and take-profit in your trading manual:

How to judge the sustainability of themes:

Analyzing market expectations and mindset:

Deep analysis of short-term trading terminology:

Trend operation details:

Focus on sector linkage and grasping buy/sell points:

Practical guide for beginners: from the “Three Elements” to implementation methods, understanding to avoid pitfalls.

Win first, then seek battle (theory discussion):

Decoding the capital operation logic behind theme price hikes:

After the frenzy (warning chapter):

If this helps, please like, tip, promote, and support. Your continuous support is the motivation for my ongoing updates. Hope to bring value to everyone!

Daily pre-market free sharing of trading plans—like and follow to get real-time trading info.