[Red Envelope] 3.17 Chemical Sector Formation, Hard Confrontation Index! Is Shun Na Being Imitated by Quantitative Emperors? Tomorrow: Opportunity or Trap?

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Today’s Operations: All these trades are simulated for market review and learning purposes only, not real trading guidance.

Trading Account:

Buy: Urban Construction Development, focus on moving averages, currently small green

Logic: The pre-market order of Beijing Investment Development exceeded expectations. Buying low on the left side of Urban Construction Development carries low risk for trial and error. These are stocks that have been fermented early. During the consolidation phase, as long as the sector remains strong, arbitrage can be successful easily. When Beijing Investment pulls back with support, I opened Urban Construction. Why not buy at the front? I think chasing high at the front during the current market is risky. The left side of the consolidation has less risk. It’s mainly arbitrage behavior.

Sell: Jinan International, take profit at the high, cut loss, red 13 points

Logic: I mentioned this stock in yesterday’s review. Last Friday, during the market divergence, Jinan was relatively resilient. When the market dropped sharply on Monday, it rebounded strongly. Hitting the moving average was a good entry point for trial. This shows funds were still present last Friday, with no major divergence. Retail investors couldn’t hold on. Also, the key event was NVIDIA’s conference on the 17th at 2 AM. There was a market expectation gap during this period. The reason for taking profit at the high today was also discussed in the morning thoughts. After the conference, there were no surprises; it was all hype. NVIDIA’s chain surged to prevent profit-taking.

The core of short-term trading is simple: operate within your understanding of the pattern, with strong execution. Don’t hold onto illusions. If expectations don’t meet your understanding, exit quickly. In short, don’t guess tops during short-term trading. Focus only on the weak and strong of the day.

Trend Account:

Reduce positions: Dawi Technology, sell half at the high, overall down 10 points.

Logic: I need to correct myself on this stock. When it was consolidating after a rebound, I was doing short-term arbitrage with IDC and crayfish. As long as the sector ferments, a second wave is possible, and earning ten points is feasible. Since it’s in the trend account with a small position, I set up a layout and waited for a return flow. Unexpectedly, the market continued to fall sharply. Today’s surge provided a chance to cut losses. Sold half first. Last month, I lost over 40 points, but it’s not a big deal to give some back. In the future, short-term trading won’t be hindered by the limited funds in the trading account; I’ll operate within the trend account.

Holdings: HeDuan Intelligent, up 7 points

Logic: This stock has been held for a long time, from red 10 points to now green. It’s been in a pattern. Before buying, it had a limit-up boost and was in a high-level consolidation. It has attention from funds, and the two sessions mentioned new industries and future development, similar to commercial aerospace. I am optimistic about the medium term, especially with nuclear power support. If risk aversion in electricity sector follows a cyclical pattern like aerospace, a bottoming high will ferment into nuclear power. Continue to hold.

Market Review: (In the future, pre-market reviews will no longer include charts or annotations about today’s focus and unfollows. You can check today’s operation in the review post or look back at previous posts for intraday trades.)

The market’s fragmentation today is essentially a transition period between a large-cycle retreat and the rise of new main lines: the index’s unilateral decline is a risk-avoidance response from funds to the overall environment, while emotional recovery is the result of short-term funds grouping around new directions. Sector rotation seems chaotic but the core contradiction is whether the power sector’s rebound can continue and whether the chemical sector’s ladder-like explosion can stabilize as the main line.

In the afternoon, Shunnao Co., Ltd. led a rebound in the power sector, which looks like sector recovery on the surface, but two details reveal the essence: first, the old leaders—Goldwind, Jinkai, Nengke—collectively underperformed, indicating confidence in power is only at new high-low points, not the entire sector. Second, Shunnao’s limit-up was after 14:30, showing late-day support with weak turnover throughout the day. Such non-market-driven limit-ups require funds to support the next day. Only a shift from weakness to strength will do.

Currently, the maximum number of consecutive limit-ups is stuck at four. Yunnan Energy Control, as the power sector’s high anchor, has been sideways for two days without breaking upward, indicating the power sector’s hype has peaked. Short-term rebounds are fragile against the large-cycle retreat, so even if Shunnao exceeds expectations tomorrow, it can only be a small position trial or just watch. I’ve noticed—are quant strategies now mimicking the second-wave tactics of the small group’s general approach?

The chemical sector’s surge today was not sudden; the logic behind chemical price increases is still unchallenged. External geopolitical factors and risk-avoidance demand are strong catalysts. Today’s market further confirmed this: when the index fell hardest, the chemical sector rose against the trend, showing funds see it as a safe haven.

Structurally, the chemical sector’s 4-3-2-1 ladder is healthier than the previous power sector’s: first, trend leader Jinnuo Chemical kept hitting new highs, expanding sector imagination; second, the core stocks with multiple limit-ups—Sanxiang Road—had full turnover without gaps, indicating strong future explosive potential; third, the rebound stocks—Jinzheng D—recovered, forming a healthy cycle of “leader leading + followers mimicking.”

Let’s wait for the sector’s rebound to stabilize before discussing further. It’s all speculation now.

For the next day’s operation ideas and short-term or low-position wave strategies, I will share thoughts before the morning session. (Overnight expectations will still be included in the daily review; if absent, it means I’m not optimistic.)

Technical tips below↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓

Super detailed trading + swing operation manual: Pre-market determines life and death, intraday buy/sell capture, a trading system even beginners can understand!

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2q03WHAZdWb

From Quantitative to Short-term: Core flexible techniques during chaotic periods. How to hedge risk, reduce account drawdowns, and stabilize returns!

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2qbxOcQZj51

Core insights on swing trading!

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2pferIa8CWv

How to improve win rate on board, and how to operate the next day after bad or high-volume boards?

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2oSfJzxbm7B

Operate only within your understanding pattern.

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2oGKOX9eCuc

Position control:

1. When the main line is clear, I usually buy 2-3 stocks, focusing on the front and back ranks within the same sector. Up to 3 stocks. I also keep 1-2 layers for replenishment.

2. During normal market conditions, I reduce to 2 stocks max, with half a position for replenishment.

3. In chaotic markets with many expected news, I diversify positions—e.g., if I like 4 sectors, I do 2-2-2-2, leaving 2 for replenishment. This is hedging within my understanding pattern, with clear view of which are short-term profit targets and which are defensive. Don’t buy and hold blindly. Beginners should wait on the sidelines or hold light positions.

My position management:

1. In good markets, I usually hold 8 layers, with 2 for flexibility. In average markets, I cut to half. When weak, I keep only 2 layers.

2. For stocks I believe can trend, I open around 7 layers, gradually lock in profits down to 3-4 layers, focusing on main upward moves. For rebound stocks, I usually open at 4 layers, not adding more, and rolling profits down to 2 layers.

3. For board trading, I open full positions, mainly arbitrage. For those unfamiliar, I recommend starting with one layer, then gradually adding as you learn. My full position is based on my limited capital in the trading account.

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There are no standard answers in trading, only rhythms that suit you. Strictly follow your plan—no greed, no chasing highs, no blindly following. The additional core targets are selected through logical screening and market validation. Hope to help everyone avoid pitfalls and eat more profits!