High-quality assets are in hot demand when grouped together, while lower-tier assets are frozen over a vast expanse.

First, the conclusion:
The index is pulling back with decreasing volume, and market sentiment is polarized. Leading stocks with continuous daily gains remain strong and form independent trends, but the success rate of first-day breakouts is very low, showing obvious “gap” characteristics in the market. Funds are clustering around core stocks, while low-priced stocks are ignored. In a shrinking volume environment, market play becomes increasingly intense.

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Deep Dive: Market Sentiment Review
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Tuesday, March 17

1. Key Data and Sentiment Diagnosis
1.1 Overall Market Performance
Today, the main index closed at 4049.91 points, down 34.88 points. Total turnover was 2.2079 trillion yuan, shrinking by 117.5 billion yuan from yesterday, marking five consecutive days of declining volume. The number of advancing stocks was only 843, while declining stocks reached 4,334, indicating “index adjustment, widespread decline in individual stocks.”

Looking at the sentiment of limit-ups, there were 39 non-ST stocks hitting the limit up, and 10 hitting the limit down. The data is still manageable. However, the rate of limit-up stocks breaking their boards was as high as 30.36%, and the average increase of limit-up stocks yesterday that hit the limit today was only 1.88%, showing that relay premiums are still present, but the difficulty of hitting the limit has quietly increased.

1.2 Sentiment Temperature Analysis
Market sentiment shows a “K-shaped” divergence. On one hand, the tier of stocks with continuous daily gains remains resilient, all of yesterday’s limit-up stocks upgraded today, with substantial premiums; on the other hand, the first-day limit-up stocks are collapsing, with only a 13% success rate for second-day upgrades, indicating that funds only recognize core high-flyers and ignore low-priced miscellaneous stocks. This is a typical feature of a shrinking volume market, where funds prefer to concentrate on key leaders rather than spreading out.

2. In-Depth Analysis of the Continuous Daily Gain Tier
The structure of the tier is as follows:

【4-day limit-up】
Farsight, Sanfangxiang (4 days, 4 limit-ups)
These two are now market benchmarks, especially Farsight, which has dual wings of optical fiber and AI, with a 17-day streak of 10 limit-ups, showing strong momentum.

【3-day limit-up】
Chitianhua, Jingtou Development, Xihua Technology, Yaxiang Integration (3 days, 3 limit-ups)
This tier is well-structured, covering chemicals, real estate, new stocks, AI hardware. Although the themes are diverse, they are all leading stocks in their respective sectors, with decent continuation ability.

【2-day limit-up】
Shenhua Development A, Shun Na Shares, Huaneng Liaoning, Zhuolang Intelligent, Guosheng Technology (2 days, 2 limit-ups)
Many of these are upgraded from first-day limit-ups yesterday. Among them, Shun Na Shares, though a 2-day limit-up, has a history of 10 days with 6 limit-ups, belonging to the high-level rebound logic of energy storage/electric power lines, not to be underestimated.

Tier comments: The 100% upgrade rate for high-level limit-up stocks indicates strong recognition of leaders; “the strong get stronger.” However, the poor second-day upgrade rate at low levels shows insufficient market capacity, with funds only doing subtraction rather than addition.

3. Hot Sector and Core Stock Comments
3.1 Power and Energy Storage (Relatively strongest)
Today, 8 stocks hit the limit-up in this sector, making it the strongest. Guosheng Technology hit 5 limit-ups in 11 days, steady in trend; Shun Na Shares rebounded to 2 limit-ups, boosting the power sector. Also, Chint Power 3 limit-ups in 5 days, Energy-saving Wind Power 3 in 5 days, Jiangsu New Energy 2 in 4 days, forming a complete tier. The logic revolves around “electricity calculation synergy” and green power value revaluation.

3.2 Chemicals (Moving forward amid divergence)
Despite many limit-ups, the trend is mixed. Sanfangxiang leads with 4 limit-ups, Chitianhua assists with 3. Many other stocks in the sector surged then fell back, mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts causing price expectations. The profit-taking traces are obvious, not a good match for sustained growth.

3.3 AI and Hardware (Rotational rebound)
Farsight leads with 4 limit-ups, Yaxiang Integration 3, Zhuolang Intelligent 2. While showing some strength, most are following the recovery of external tech stocks, with sustainability to be tested.

3.4 Real Estate (News-driven)
Jingtou Development 3 limit-ups, Jinneng Real Estate and others hitting first limit-up, driven by favorable policy adjustments in Shanghai commercial and office loans. However, these are more bottom-line supports, with limited explosive power, unlikely to become main themes.

4. Overall Market Sentiment Analysis
Currently, the market is in a “shrinking volume clustering” cycle. Opportunities lie in:

• Breaking through high-level core leaders like Farsight and Sanfangxiang, with strong fund holding intentions and high premiums.
  Risks include:
• Continuous volume decline, with today marking the fifth consecutive day of shrinking volume. Without increased funds, high-level stocks may experience sharp corrections, causing significant damage.
  Fund behavior features: extreme “elimination of weak, retention of strong,” focusing only on core stocks, abandoning the laggards.
  Sentiment indicator interpretation: Yesterday’s tier of stocks with multiple limit-ups upgrading today indicates extreme enthusiasm; but a 13% success rate for first-day limit-up upgrades indicates extreme coldness. The market is a “pseudo-hot, true-cold” scenario—apparent prosperity, underlying turbulence.

5. Future Market Direction and Focus
Short-term, the index is approaching the lower boundary of the box. Without volume support, there is a risk of breakdown. The market style will continue to favor “light index, heavy individual stocks,” with stock prices highly compressed, and only core stocks able to stand out.

Focus areas:

1. Power/Energy Storage: Most solid logic, complete tiers, focus on core stocks for low-entry or relay opportunities.
2. High-level clustering: Farsight, Sanfangxiang and other “monster stocks” have shown their traits; as long as no A-shares-style plunge occurs, they can serve as sentiment indicators.
3. Risk-averse sectors: If the index further declines, high-dividend and high-yield sectors may become safe havens.

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【Important Disclaimer】: The above is for sharing ideas only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously!