Nvidia Stock Remains ‘Rangebound’ – Can GTC 2026 Break the Trend? Wells Fargo Weighs In

Shares of semiconductor giant Nvidia NVDA +1.65% ▲ have remained “rangebound” over the past six months, trading sideways despite a solid earnings report and improving financial visibility. Wells Fargo’s top analyst Aaron Rakers calls this a “frustrating” trade and explores what could break this trend. Could Nvidia’s annual developer conference, GTC 2026, move the needle? Or is another factor holding the stock back?

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At yesterday’s GTC keynote speech, CEO Jensen Huang stated that revenues could double to $1 trillion by 2027, aided by rising demand for its Blackwell and Rubin platforms. However, this news did little to move the stock.

Rakers faced similar questions in nearly every meeting during his recent marketing week: Why won’t Nvidia’s stock go up? Here’s a brief look at his thoughts.

Before diving into the dynamics, Rakers highlighted some stark facts about Nvidia’s valuation.

• Nvidia holds the world’s largest market cap at $4.45 trillion.

• Its stock has surged more than 50% in the past year, 6x over three years, and 13x in five years, outpacing the S&P 500 by over 30%, 5x, and 12x, respectively.

• Six months of flat returns feel endless for investors chasing constant gains, but it is worth a quick reminder of that track record before unpacking what’s happening now.

• Even so, stagnant returns and a valuation of about 20x EPS, on par with the slower-growing S&P 500 (SPX), are fueling some frustration.

NVDA’s Long, Rangebound Six Months

Nvidia’s stock plunged after its last earnings call, proving the market was primed to sell off regardless of the numbers. Rakers noted that valuations in the AI-compute sector, including Broadcom AVGO +0.86% ▲ , Advanced Micro Devices AMD +1.65% ▲ , and Marvell MRVL +4.23% ▲ , plus Nvidia’s suppliers, have risen, so he doubts peak market share fears are behind the muted reaction.

Have high conviction in NVDA? Leverage your view

After much analysis, Rakers attributed the stall to Nvidia’s massive $4.45 trillion market cap. At this size, NVDA no longer trades like a typical stock. The analyst is seeing unfamiliar trading and fund-flow dynamics at work and believes these are capping the stock for now.

Rakers pointed out that adding the next $2 trillion in market cap is far harder than the last $2 trillion. Many investors, especially those speaking with semiconductor analysts, are hunting for stocks with realistic doubling potential. For Nvidia, that means hitting a $9 trillion valuation, roughly the combined GDP of Germany and India. Rakers has heard repeatedly that supply chain players offer more upside torque than Nvidia itself.

He concluded that Nvidia’s enormous scale has elevated it beyond semiconductor analysts and portfolio managers. It is now often a CIO-level decision tied to broad portfolio exposure. His talks with semis-focused investors remain almost universally positive.

Is NVDA Stock a Buy Right Now?

Rakers kept his Buy rating and $265 price target on NVDA, suggesting 44.6% upside. He is a five-star TipRanks analyst, ranked #16 among 12,128 tracked, with a 68% success rate and 36.10% average return per rating.

Overall, NVDA commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 39 Buys and one Hold rating. On TipRanks, the average Nvidia price target of $274.46 implies 49.8% upside potential from current levels.

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