Duterte Impeachment Bid Loses Momentum as Major Party Faction Withholds Support

The second attempt to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte faces a significant credibility test after a key political alliance signaled its reluctance to join the effort. While this development doesn’t necessarily spell the end of the impeachment campaign, it reveals just how challenging the path has become for advocates hoping to succeed where they failed before. The political landscape has shifted considerably since the 19th Congress, and the calculations that once seemed promising are now looking far less certain.

NUP’s Strategic Withdrawal from Impeachment Effort

The National Unity Party’s announcement on February 25 delivered a clear message: without fresh evidence, they’re not on board. In an official statement, NUP emphasized that it has not encountered “new and material evidence” substantial enough to justify reopening the case against Duterte. The party made clear that unless “compelling new evidence emerges during the course of these hearings that fundamentally alters the factual basis,” they will likely vote against the impeachment measure.

This position marks a notable reversal from the NUP’s previous stance. During the 19th Congress, most NUP members actively supported the first impeachment drive, which actually succeeded in the House. However, that effort ultimately collapsed when the Supreme Court intervened to halt the Senate trial. Now, with different leadership in place—including Deputy Speaker Ronaldo Puno, who was not present during the previous impeachment attempt—the party is taking a more cautious approach.

The Challenge of Finding New Evidence in Impeachment Case

The timing of Duterte’s declaration of her 2028 presidential candidacy, announced just a week before NUP’s statement, raises questions about political calculations. Analysts view her candidacy announcement as a strategic move to gauge which legislators will remain in her corner. The NUP’s response suggests that her legislative allies are not automatically backing this renewed impeachment drive.

The allegations themselves remain unchanged from the original case: misuse of confidential government funds, alleged bribery of education officials, unexplained wealth accumulation, and reported threats made against the President and his family. Duterte has dismissed all charges with blanket denials, though critics argue she hasn’t systematically addressed each specific allegation. For the impeachment campaign to gain traction with hesitant parties like NUP, advocates would need to present evidence that substantively differs from what already emerged during earlier congressional hearings and investigations.

Calculating the Numbers: Can Impeachment Advocates Still Reach Threshold?

Mathematically, the impeachment campaign isn’t completely foreclosed. Advocates could theoretically assemble 105 to 106 votes—the one-third threshold required to send Duterte to Senate trial. However, momentum is working against them rather than in their favor. NUP, the second-largest voting bloc in the House with approximately 30 members, represents firepower that’s difficult to replace.

The dynamics are complicated by the presence of notable NUP figures whose positions matter considerably. These include members from established political families like the Villafuertes, Ping Remulla (son of Ombudsman Boying Remulla) from Cavite, Iloilo’s Lorenz Defensor who holds seniority in the Majority Leader’s office under Sandro Marcos, and Manila’s Rolando Valeriano. Notably, Valeriano was the one who delivered the privilege speech that triggered the first round of congressional investigation against Duterte in 2024—making his party’s current hesitation particularly significant for understanding the political landscape.

A Pattern of Political Realignment Ahead of 2028

The NUP’s reluctance illuminates the broader challenge facing the impeachment campaign. As the second-largest faction after Lakas signals caution, the path to assembling sufficient votes becomes noticeably steeper. Political allegiances appear to be recalibrating ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle, and traditional assumptions about voting patterns may not hold.

The impeachment effort is not dead, but it’s increasingly relying on political will that appears to be evaporating rather than consolidating. Without either breakthrough evidence or a fundamental shift in the political calculations of fence-sitting legislators, the second impeachment attempt faces an uphill battle significantly more challenging than what advocates initially anticipated.