From Clearing to Reversal: Full Analysis of Brother Maji's ETH Position Data and Market Impact Forecast

Amidst widespread market pessimism, on-chain data has monitored a highly notable trading activity. On February 28, the well-known crypto investor “Brother Machi” was fully liquidated on a 25x leveraged ETH long position established earlier. Almost immediately afterward, he opened another ETH long position with the same leverage. As of February 28, 2026, his total unrealized loss has exceeded $29 million. Is this act a contrarian bottom-fishing move driven by conviction, or a high-risk gamble? This article analyzes the data logic and market psychology behind this event, based on Gate market data and on-chain information.

Event Overview: Counter-Trade After Liquidation

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens, as the crypto market continued to decline, Brother Machi’s 25x leveraged ETH long was forcibly liquidated after hitting the liquidation price. Unlike typical stop-loss exits, this address quickly opened another position in the same direction—again using 25x leverage. As of the latest data, this address has a total unrealized loss of over $29 million due to these two trades.

ETH’s Persistent Downtrend

To understand this liquidation event, it’s essential to place it within the recent macro trend of Ethereum’s price.

• Timeline: Since February, ETH has entered a significant downtrend. According to Gate data, as of February 28, 2026, ETH price is $1,928.53.
• Price decline: Over the past 30 days, ETH has fallen by 35.00%; in the past 7 days, it dropped 2.58%. In the last 24 hours, the price briefly dipped to $1,886.69, with a maximum 24-hour decline of 4.57%.
• Trigger of liquidation: During this sustained decline and localized acceleration, Brother Machi’s 25x leveraged position failed to withstand the volatility and was liquidated during the market correction on February 28.

Leverage, Position Size, and Liquidation Points

From a structural analysis perspective, this event centers on the conflict between “high leverage” and “left-side buying.”

• The double-edged nature of leverage: 25x leverage means that a roughly 4% adverse move in ETH price can wipe out the entire principal. In the volatile crypto market, this is an extremely risky strategy.
• Data gaps and logical inference: Although the exact opening price isn’t fully disclosed, the fact that the position was liquidated with a loss of over $29 million suggests a substantial initial position size. The immediate re-opening of a similar leveraged long indicates the trader’s strong expectation of a rebound after the sharp decline, attempting to “recoup” losses.
• Current position status: According to Hyperbot data, after these operations, the account’s total value is now $0, with no open positions. This suggests the latest long position may have faced further challenges or been absorbed by the market.

Faith, Gambling, and Market Bottoms

Market sentiment around this event is sharply polarized, with three main viewpoints:

• Believers: Argue that Brother Machi, as an early industry participant, acts based on a firm belief in Ethereum’s long-term value. Buying during a downturn is a contrarian “fear when others are greedy” strategy.
• Risk warnings: Mainstream views see this as a cautionary tale of high-leverage trading. Using 25x leverage amid an unclear trend and a 35% decline over 30 days is akin to gambling. Such behavior amplifies individual risk and could trigger chain reactions, increasing market panic.
• Bottom-finding analysts: Some interpret such “whale liquidations” as short-term bottom signals. They believe that after high-leverage speculative positions are cleared, the remaining structure will be healthier, making prices more stable.

Objective Reflection of On-Chain Data

It’s important to clarify that all observations about Brother Machi’s trades are based on on-chain data analysis tools like Onchain Lens. The facts are: the address 0x020c…5872 indeed shows ETH perpetual contract longs being liquidated and new positions opened, and this address is marked as related to Brother Machi. The interpretation—whether as “faith” or “gambling”—is subjective. The estimate that losses exceed $29 million is based on reasonable assumptions about entry and liquidation prices, not exact on-chain figures. We must distinguish between the objective fact of address activity and the subjective analysis of motives and profit/loss outcomes.

Image source: Onchain Lens

Warnings on High Leverage Trading and Market Psychology

This event sends at least two signals to the industry:

• Education on high leverage risks: For platforms offering high-leverage trading, this is another vivid risk case. It reminds participants that in extreme conditions, high-leverage positions are extremely fragile.
• Psychological impact on ETH price: As a prominent market participant, the $29 million loss will spread widely within the community. In the short term, it may dampen retail traders’ confidence in bottom-fishing ETH, raising concerns like “Whales are all trapped, can we still buy?”—potentially exerting psychological pressure on ETH’s short-term rebound.

Scenario Evolution and Future Outlook

Based on current Gate data showing ETH at $1,928.53 and a generally bearish market sentiment, we consider several possible scenarios:

• Scenario 1: Short-term rebound (moderate probability)
  • Rationale: After a whale liquidation, markets often experience a technical rebound due to “short-term panic exhaustion.” If ETH stabilizes around the $1,900 psychological level, short covering could push prices back to $2,000–$2,100.
• Scenario 2: Further decline (higher probability)
  • Rationale: A 35% decline over 30 days indicates a weak trend. The recent losses of Brother Machi could further dampen market sentiment. If ETH breaks below the 24-hour low of $1,886, support may shift downward.
  • Supporting data: Ethereum Rainbow Chart analysis suggests current prices are in the mid-to-lower range historically, with room to fall further.
• Scenario 3: Long-term bottoming (lower probability)
  • Rationale: Requires time and volume. Only when high-leverage speculative positions are fully cleared, and Ethereum’s ecosystem shows real positive catalysts (like upgrades or adoption), can a long-term bottom form, attracting institutional investors.

Conclusion

Brother Machi’s 25x leveraged ETH long story exemplifies the high-risk nature of crypto speculation. It objectively demonstrates that even experienced traders’ high-leverage positions are highly vulnerable in trending markets. For retail investors, the key takeaway isn’t to imitate “bottom-fishing,” but to reassess the double-edged nature of leverage tools. In the process of Ethereum’s price finding a bottom, survival often outweighs gambling.